Insights
China : here , there and everywhere
The near-end of the negotiations between Ambassador Joseph Yun and the freely associated states is only 50 percent of the struggle to completion . The remainder is in the U . S . Congress and dealing with the proposed compact funding . Decisions about the acceptable “ top line ” and whether it is mandatory spending or not will be made within the context of Republican-Democrat discussions about the budget . The more radical elements of the Republicans , who are in the ascendency in the U . S . House of Representatives , will throw their weight behind reduced spending .
The only weight being thrown in the opposite direction is not coming from favorable Democrats or mainstream Republicans . It is coming from concern over China . The “ Chinese threat ” is the main motivator for changing the nature of the negotiations last year . It is the backdrop for most conversations about defense and foreign affairs for the past year . How the Pacific fits into this discussion is what drives Washington . It certainly isn ’ t a basic concern over the Pacific islands . Prior to Chinese activities , the U . S . interest in the Pacific was lukewarm at best and disinterested at worse .
Last month , Jane Bloclage testified before the subcommittee on Indo-Pacific for the Foreign Affairs Committee . As the deputy to Ambassador Yun in his negotiating responsibilities , she noted that without the proposed funding for the FAS , our Micronesian neighbors will be subjected to the “ predatory behavior , coercive behavior ” by the Chinese .
The package is $ 7.1 billion over 20 years including $ 634 million to support continuing the U . S . Postal Service for
By Robert A Underwood
our neighbors . That is actually a subsidy given to the USPS .
On a side note , all of the FAS use mail-in balloting from many places in the United States , and of course , Guahan . Republicans would be inadvertently supporting “ mail-in voting .”
There are also some joint referral issues related to the processing of the new agreements . The first hearing was at the House Foreign Affairs Committee , where the State Department takes center stage . Presumably , when the House Natural Resources Committee takes it up as an “ insular affairs ” matter , the Department of the Interior will take center stage .
The agreements are negotiated by the
State Department but the disbursement and management of funds will be handled by Interior .
The Chinese threat is also the main line of explanation for the military ’ s zigzagging through Guahan land issues . Originally , the military was going to lease lands for renewable energy projects and there is always a conversation about the return of excess lands . However , according to Rear Admiral Ben Nicholson , the Chinese threats have changed all this . The land is needed for 19 anti-missile battery sites and Gov . Lou Leon Guerrero ’ s proposal for a medical campus comes with conditions connected to military uses .
The American response has been to confront Chinese influence on the islands through a 21st Century U . S . -Pacific Island Partnership . The more robust and financially significant response has been to build and strengthen relationships such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue , commonly known as Quad , which in-
The Chinese threat is also the main line of explanation for the military ’ s zigzagging through Guahan land issues . Originally , the military was going to lease lands for renewable energy projects and there is always conversation about the return of excess lands .
cludes India , the United States , Japan and Australia . There is also AUKUS , which supports Australia ’ s nuclear submarine capability through a collaboration with the United Kingdom and the United States .
The recently concluded expanded Cope North exercises out of Guam and throughout the expanse of the Western Pacific provided evidence of these efforts . Even France became part of the exercises .
There is a reunion of sorts among all former colonial powers . Japan , the United Kingdom , France and the United States are all working in tandem to defend freedom of the seas and self-determination .
The Chinese threat is aflame in Washington and is part of the conversation of TikTok , the origin of Covid-19 , the technological threat and , of course , the “ strategic threat ” of Chinese military forces . It seems as if almost every dimension of public policy in Washington is tied to China .
Beijing is a “ pacing threat ” as well as the champion of “ autocracy ” in government ideology . Add to this , charges of Chinese industrial espionage and threats to take Taiwan by force and it feels like we are all under some kind of Chinese targeting .
Micronesian President David Panuelo ’ s departing statement about Chinese interference and the Guam legislature ’ s sudden reversal on the burn pit issue under pressure from Admiral Nicholson makes it seem like we are comfortably part of the “ China alert and beware ” system .
It is a curious phenomenon in which the bullseye of the target is not looking for ways to reduce conflict . Apparently , we are happy to be both the tip of the spear and the bullseye .
But there are other voices in the world . We assume that we are only enhancing the deterrence to a potential Chinese attack and blocking Chinese initiatives . Others think that American movements form a kind of enhanced or aggressive deterrence which unwittingly enhances the possibility of conflict .
Moreover , it is accompanied by a kind of rhetoric that prepares us to support almost anything . We have been down this road before in Vietnam and in the Iraq / Afghanistan wars . In those conflicts , we learned about the “ domino theory ,” the “ axis of evil ” and “ weapons of mass destruction .”
At the end of the day , the United States did not alter the outcome . The main difference this time is that conflict with China will not be through surrogates . It will be between the main actors .
Unfortunately , the initial stages of such a conflict will be played out here in these islands .
Dr . Robert Underwood is the former president of the University of Guam and a former member of the U . S . House of Representatives . Send feedback to anacletus2010 @ gmail . com .
The opinions expressed here are solely the author ' s and do not reflect the editorial position of the Pacific Island Times .
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