FINANCE
Optimistic – Baines Jewitt directors Trevor Cook and Anne Cowley say fellow professionals are predicting a positive long-term future despite ongoing challenges .
PICTURE : TOM BANKS
basics right . This includes making sure they are up to date with their tax and other financial affairs , they have control of their cashflow and finances and they regularly review their supplier and customer contracts .
According to Handelsbanken , a leading international bank , the UK ’ s near-term outlook remains a little uncertain , as we continue to navigate our way through the aftermath of the pandemic and the ongoing consequences of the war in Ukraine . However , there are many positive signs that suggest the worst is behind us and a return to some stability is expected .
James Sproule , chief economist at Handelsbanken , recently shared some detailed insights and data about the economy , including some thoughts about what ’ s next : > The UK is unlikely to avoid a recession , but the expectation is that this will be a mild recession .
> The employment market is broadly good .
> Inflation has most likely peaked ( end of 2022 ).
> Falling energy prices will drive inflation lower . > Inflation will come down slowly . > The bank base rate will increase to 4 per cent , possibly 4.5 per cent , but then should stabilise . It ’ s unlikely to drop this year .
> We are unlikely to return to the “ cheap money ” we experienced in the period from 2015 to 2020 .
He went on to outline the impact of the pandemic on certain sectors . The main points show that : > Flights at Heathrow are down 14 per cent and passenger numbers are down 18 per cent from pre-pandemic levels . > Hotel bookings in the UK are down 5 per cent .
> For offices , there is no reliable data , but indicatively , 8 per cent more people work from home on Fridays .
> Online shopping , among other things , has created new behaviours and habits that will be hard to reverse .
> For property , all asset classes are expected to reduce in value . “ Overall , the outlook is not as gloomy as many people might fear ,” says Baines Jewitt director Anne Cowley . “ In fact , it ’ s quite positive . We should all be a little more optimistic and remember that we ’ ve been through a lot .”
What does this mean for businesses and families ? Businesses have something to be optimistic about . Consumer spending increases , new investments in technology and a reduction of overhead costs associated with office space rental should all contribute towards improved bottom lines .
Wages are also likely to rise , allowing families the chance to gain financial stability by saving more money for larger purchases , such as homes or cars . Furthermore , inflation rates could stabilise and then reduce over time , providing some welcome relief through cheaper prices on everyday goods .
What does this mean for property owners ? Property owners could experience a welcome period of stability , with the likelihood that consumer spending will return and strengthen the demand for housing .
Conclusion The landscape is ever-changing . All in all , while there are still many uncertainties surrounding how exactly the UK economy will look beyond 2023 after several difficult years , there appears to be light at the end of this long economic tunnel .
Baines Jewitt is here to support local businesses and local people . If you would like to chat about how you are faring and help plan for your future , please get in touch . Tel : 01642 632032 or email info @ bainesjewitt . co . uk .
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