Forward Leadership
By Dennis McMillian
“One cannot manage change. One can only be ahead of it.” – Peter Drucker
Running an organization has never been easy, but today’s
business leaders may face the most complex challenges in
history. While trend analysis isn’t a perfect science, it may be
the best tool we have to stay ahead of change.
One example is Moore’s Law on rapidly changing tech-
nology. In 1965, Moore observed that the number of tran-
sistors in a dense integrated circuit doubled approximately
every two years; that trend continues today. Futurists rely on
such trend analysis to help leaders better anticipate what may
happen.
Modern futurism began in the early 20th century with
H.G. Wells’ Anticipations. Since then, we’ve had Alvin Toffler’s
Future Shock, John Naisbitt’s Megatrends, and many others
providing interesting and at times accurate predictions of
where society and technology will go.
While we may not be able to predict
the future, by monitoring trends we
can get a glimpse of what could be
and make a better educated guess
about what we can do to prepare for
change.
10 January 2018
One of today’s most noted futurists is Bob Johansen, a
senior fellow at The Institute of the Future in Palo Alto, Cali-
fornia, who stated in his book Leaders Make the Change: “We
are in a time of accelerating disruptive change. In a VUCA
world – one characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Com-
plexity, and Ambiguity – traditional leadership skills will not
be enough.” He and others don’t stop there; they expect the
new leader will need to create organizations that are nimble
with the ability to quickly adjust as the world around them
changes. For business leaders, this rapidly changing and con-
fusing world makes it incredibly hard to be strategic in order
to, as Drucker suggests, “be ahead of it.”
First Trend: From Hierarchy to Networked Systems
There will be a transition from strict adherence to tradi-
tional hierarchical or siloed structures toward more decentral-
ized, networked systems. Hierarchies depend on well-known
practices like the use of policies and procedures to maintain
order. Networked systems depend on alignment through a
continued focus on a common purpose and the principles
required for accomplishing that purpose.
While networked systems are not as well understood,
most organizational theorists now see the movement toward
this type of organization as inevitable and connected to the
need for rapid adaption and transformation. Starting in the
‘60s and ‘70s, corporate leaders like David Packard, founder of
HP, and Dee Hock, founder of VISA, experimented with such
structures. We now see many more organizations adapting