STANSW Science Education News Journal 2019 2019 SEN Vol 68 Issue 3 | Page 18

ARTICLES An Online Climate Model to facilitate Depth-studies and Science Extension By Angela M. Maharaj, Ian Macadam and Alex Sen Gupta ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX); Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC); University of New South Wales (UNSW). Simple online models of the Earth’s climate are being developed by Australian universities and are increasingly being used as teaching aids in high schools. This article describes one such model developed by UNSW. “Carbonator” (www.carbonator.org) is already being used as an inquiry tool for NSW Stage 6 depth studies in Physics, Earth and Environmental Science (EES) and Investigating Science (IS). models. They provide data from the models to an international project called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) (see https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip). Data from CMIP can be accessed by scientists around the world and used in climate research. Results from CMIP inform many of the public statements on climate change made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations body charged with providing policymakers with regular assessments on what we know about climate change. These statements can be influential in determining government policies on climate change and in international negotiations on how to combat it. Recent changes in the NSW Stage 6 Science Syllabus encourage inquiry-based learning through depth studies and a new Science Extension subject. Simple models can be a useful means of motivating student-led investigations, as well as educating students about the models used by scientists. The Earth’s climate is ideal for students to explore with simple models. Not only are climate models a primary tool of scientists trying to understand the climate system, but these models play a key role in informing decision-making around climate change, arguably the most important environmental challenge of the day. ‘Carbonator’: A simple climate model ‘Carbonator’ is a simple climate model that runs online in seconds (see Box 2). It is much less detailed than a state-of- the-art climate model, and does not produce maps of changes in the climate. However, it uses many of the same principles to simulate changes in global average temperature in response to imbalances between the amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun and the energy that it radiates into space. These imbalances arise from climate “forcings” due to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol pollutants into the atmosphere by human activity, emissions of aerosols into the atmosphere by volcanoes, variations in the energy received from the Sun and changes in the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. As with a state- of-the-art climate model, carbonator must be provided with data related to these forcings (e.g. a time series of annual human emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for the years 1850 to 2100). Climate system modelling Greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere as a result of human activity, most importantly the release of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels, are causing global warming and driving other rapid changes to the Earth’s climate system. The primary tool for understanding how this system works and how it is likely to change in the future is the climate model (see Box 1). In the 1950s, the first climate models run on computers simulated just the circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere. Today, state-of-the-art climate models have evolved to use some of the world’s most powerful computers to simulate the atmosphere in much more detail, and also include components that simulate the ocean, land-surface and the ice on the Earth’s surface. Given data representing a scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosol pollutants, they can provide scenarios for the future climate of the planet. These are often communicated as maps of changes in important aspects of the climate, such as temperature. A typical simulation of this type running from the present to 2100 takes several months to run on a supercomputer. The effects of climate change are often summarised in terms of changes in the global average temperature of the Earth’s surface. As well as outputting these data, ‘carbonator’ also outputs other data that help students understand the effects of greenhouse gas emissions, including how additional carbon released into the climate system is partitioned between the atmosphere, vegetation, soil, the ocean and the size of the climate forcing resulting from the atmospheric component. Other topical data outputted by the model include changes in the sea level and the acidity of the ocean. Currently, approximately 40 research centres around the world maintain and continually develop their own state-of-the-art climate 18 SCIENCE EDUCATIONAL NEWS VOL 68 NO 3