[ Nickel ]
[ Nickel ]
The world nickel market in 2023 – large surplus expected
Government and industry representatives met on the 24 th and 25 th April 2023 for the most recent International Nickel Study Group meetings during which the Group reviewed its forecasts for nickel production and use in 2023 . This article gives a brief overview of recent developments and is based on the data finalized at the meetings .
By Ricardo Ferreira , INSG Director of Market Research and Statistics , and Francisco Pinto , INSG Manager of Statistical Analysis
The global economy has been gradually recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and starting to overcome some of the effects of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine . China reopened its economy which is rebounding . Energy constraints are receding , and most central banks have been raising interest rates to control inflation , although this has also resulted in some side effects in the financial sector . Overall , projections for world growth in 2023 are lower than those in 2022 . During its April 2023 meetings , the INSG revised its forecast for the nickel market balance in 2022 to a surplus of
105 thousand tonnes ( kt ). Primary nickel production in 2022 reached 3.060 million tonnes ( Mt ) while usage is forecast at 2.955Mt . Preliminary figures for 2023 indicate a surplus of 239kt with production forecast to rise to 3.374Mt and use to reach 3.134Mt . Historically , market surpluses have been linked to LME deliverable / class I nickel , but in 2023 , the surplus will be mainly due to class II and nickel chemicals ( principally nickel sulphate ).
Primary nickel production In 2023 , world primary nickel production is forecast to rise by + 10.2 %, after increasing + 5.1 % in
2021 and + 17.3 % in 2022 . Increases in output have been influenced mainly by Indonesia . However , China will again expand production , after decreases in 2020 and 2021 , especially nickel sulphate . Asian primary nickel production was 2.216Mt in 2022 (+ 23 %) and is forecast to reach 2.558Mt in 2023 (+ 15 %), with Indonesia raising output to 1.165Mt and 1.370Mt , consolidating its position as world leader , followed by China with 850kt and 970kt , respectively . Combined Indonesian and Chinese nickel pig iron ( NPI ) production was more than 1.5Mt in 2022 , and is projected to increase by + 7 % in 2023 . Indonesia has ramped up NPI production over the last decade with China ’ s output starting to decline in 2019 . According to Antaike , Indonesia commissioned 70 NPI lines in 2022 , taking the overall total to 204 . NPI accounted for more than 50 % of global primary nickel production last year , but this share is likely to decline due to the increasing production of nickel sulphate . Also in Indonesia , the conversion of NPI to nickel matte is growing , high pressure acid leaching ( HPAL ) plants to
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