[ Nickel ]
[ Nickel ]
A growing focus on non-nickel containing lithium iron phosphate batteries in Europe has negatively impacted the demand for nickel .
to produce different types of nickelcontaining batteries grew consistently until 2022 , reaching 320kt in 2020 , 634kt in 2021 (+ 98 %) and 843kt in 2022 (+ 33 %), but declined to 793kt in 2023 ( -5.9 %). Over the first 10 months of 2024 , provisional figures indicate that production decreased by a further -4 %. NCM622 precursors gained market share last year , representing just below 31 % ( 18 % in 2020 , 24 % in 2021 , and 28 % in 2022 ). This was at the expense of higher-nickel containing NCM811 precursors which suffered a fall to 38 % ( 21 % in 2020 , 29 % in 2021 , and 42 % in 2022 ). However , from January to September 2024 , NCM622 ’ s share rose to 31.5 % and NCM811 ’ s proportion recovered to almost 40 %. In Europe , the investments in battery plants have been facing difficulties , because of slowing demand growth for electric vehicles , financing issues and increased competition from Asian producers . Some scheduled investments have recently been scaled back , delayed or cancelled . There is also a growing focus on non-nickel containing lithium iron phosphate ( LFP ) batteries in the region which has negatively impacted the demand for nickel in this sector .
Nickel prices and stocks Lastly , we will briefly analyse nickel prices and exchange stocks from the end of 2023 until mid-October 2024 .
“ The rate of growth of nickel use in batteries for electric vehicles has been weaker than anticipated .”
In September 2023 , the London Metal Exchange ( LME ) nickel price ( close , cash settlement ) dropped below 20,000 USD / t for the first time since December 2021 , followed by a downtrend that persisted until February this year , with prices hitting a low of 15,620 USD / t on 6 February . After this , prices displayed volatility reaching a peak of 21,275 USD / t on 21 May , apparently influenced by a combination of investment fund money flowing into precious and base metals , Chinese government incentives for the property sector and social unrest in New Caledonia . Prices then declined during June and most of July to a four-year low of 15,470 USD / t on 25 July . This coincided with news of investment funds becoming less bullish , a strengthening of the US dollar and sluggish manufacturing data from China . Since July , prices have fluctuated mostly between 15,500 and 18,000 USD / t , with a dip in early September .
Combined LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange ( SHFE ) stocks have risen steadily since September 2023 . After a low of just above 38,000 tons in early June 2023 , a level not seen since 2007 , prior to the launch of the SHFE contract , stocks roughly doubled to 77,923 tons by the year-end . During 2024 , the rate of end-of-month stock increases decelerated up until April and then picked up . By the end of the third week of October , combined exchange stocks were 163,497 tons , the highest level since September 2021 . Since January 2023 , the LME has included reporting of stocks by origin . The recently approved Indonesian and Chinese brands have altered the composition of LME nickel stocks significantly . In September 2023 , Australian-origin nickel dominated inventories held in LME warehouses , comprising 50.8 % ( 23,118 tons ) of the total of 41,430 tons reported , while Chinese-produced nickel only accounted for 1,236 tons . By the end of September 2024 , Chinese material represented the largest share of reported LME stocks at 51,240 tons ( 41.6 % of the total 123,090 tons ), followed by nickel from the Russian Federation ( 29,100 tons ) and Australia ( 24,678 tons ). LME end-of-month off-warrant stocks reached 69,936 t in August , the highest figure since reporting began in February 2020 .
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