The world nickel market in 2024 and 2025 – back-to-back surpluses
Government and industry representatives met on the 23 rd and 24 th of September 2024 for the most recent International Nickel Study Group meetings , during which the Group reviewed its forecasts for nickel production and use for 2024 and 2025 . This article gives a brief overview of recent developments and is based on the data finalized at the meetings .
By Ricardo Ferreira , INSG Director of Market Research and Statistics & Francisco Pinto , INSG Manager of Statistical Analysis
During its September 2024 meetings , the INSG revised its forecast for the nickel market balance for 2024 to a surplus of 170 thousand tonnes ( kt ). Primary nickel production in 2024 was projected to reach 3.516 million tonnes ( Mt ) while usage was estimated at 3.346Mt . Preliminary figures for 2025 also indicated a surplus of 135kt , with production forecast to rise to 3.649Mt and use to reach 3.514Mt .
Primary nickel production In 2024 , world primary nickel production is forecast to rise by + 4.6 %, after increasing by + 9.8 % in 2023 . In 2025 , further growth of + 3.8 % is anticipated .
In Asia , primary nickel production is forecast to reach 2.843Mt in 2024 (+ 9.6 %) and 3.002Mt in 2025 (+ 5.6 %), with Indonesia raising output to 1.600Mt and 1.700Mt , consolidating its position as world leader , followed by China with 1.035kt and 1.085Mt , respectively . Both countries will produce more nickel sulphate and cathodes ( Indonesia started production of these products in 2023 ). Combined Chinese and Indonesian NPI production is projected to increase to 1.790Mt in 2024 and to 1.830Mt in 2025 . However , the trends in each country are contrasting as China ’ s output has declined since 2019 and Indonesia has ramped up production over the last decade . More recently , Indonesia has delayed the issuance of quotas for nickel mining ( RKABs ), leading to supply shortages and , as a result , some companies have started importing ore from the Philippines in order to maintain NPI production levels . Additionally , discussions are taking place in Indonesia to limit new licenses for NPI capacity in the future whilst , at the same time , Indonesian NPI has been exported to European stainless steel mills to be tested as a possible feed . Last year , Indonesia started producing nickel sulphate ( Lygend ) and nickel cathode ( CNGR ). Currently , these projects have continued to ramp up with export volumes increasing . On the 23 rd of May 2024 , the LME approved the listing of CNGR ’ s brand which contains a minimum of 99.8 % pure nickel . The brand is owned by PT CNGR ( Ding Xing New Energy ), which has an annual capacity of 50,000 tons full-plate metal . This supplements five recent additions from China : Guanxi Huayou New Material ( brand HUAYOUgx ) 30,000 tons , Jingmen Gem
20 Stainless Steel World December 2024 www . stainless-steel-world . net