Steel production at Posco , South Korea . Photo by World Steel .
The world nickel market in 2023 and 2024 – two years with surpluses
Government and industry representatives met on the 2 nd and 3 rd October 2023 for the most recent International Nickel Study Group ( INSG ) meetings during which the Group reviewed its forecasts for nickel production and use in 2023 and 2024 . This article gives a brief overview of recent developments and is based on the data finalised at the meetings .
By Ricardo Ferreira , INSG Director of Market Research and Statistics & Francisco Pinto , INSG Manager of Statistical Analysis
The global economy was impacted positively by the reopening of China and lower energy prices at the beginning of 2023 , but tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates to fight inflation are affecting business and consumer confidence . In general , world economic growth in 2023 is expected to be lower than in 2022 and decline further in 2024 .
During its October 2023 meetings , the INSG reviewed its forecast for the global nickel market balance for 2023 to a surplus of 223 thousand tonnes ( kt ). Primary nickel production in 2023 is anticipated to reach 3.417 million tonnes ( Mt ) while usage is projected at 3.195Mt . Preliminary figures for 2024 indicate a further surplus of 239kt , with production forecast to rise to 3.713Mt and usage to reach 3.474Mt .
Historically , market surpluses have been linked to London Metal Exchange ( LME ) deliverable / class I nickel , but in 2023 and 2024 , the surplus will be mainly related to class II and nickel chemicals ( principally nickel sulphate ), though in 2024 , refined production will likely increase , especially in China .
Primary nickel production World primary nickel production is forecast to rise by almost + 12 % in 2023 and close to + 9 % in 2024 after increasing by + 17.3 % in 2022 . Increases in output have been influenced mainly by Indonesia and China . Both countries will have more nickel sulphate and cathode production – the former started producing the two products in 2023 . Indonesia will continue to expand nickel pig iron production ( NPI ), though at a slower pace than in previous years , whilst output in China will continue to decline .
22 Stainless Steel World December 2023 www . stainless-steel-world . net