Virus Curve
Australia
New Zealand
Japan 2.8
2.6
2.1
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taiwan 1.9
0.5
0.3
Why have we been so successful? We don’t really know for sure. It’s
partly been luck, because the epidemic started in our summer whereas
for the northern hemisphere it was their winter and so spread more
quickly. But we did act early with restricting travel to Australia. E.g. we
stopped travel from China (apart from returning Australians) from 1 st
February. And as our Governments have progressively tightened re-
strictions on our movements and gatherings over the last 4 weeks, Aus-
tralians have in large measure complied. Following the rules, though it
has been difficult, has had very good results.
We have been so successful in slowing the spread of the virus, that the
National Cabinet is looking to see what restrictions could be relaxed in 3
weeks’ time without increasing the health risk.
There is no guarantee that restrictions will be relaxed, as it will depend
on how many new cases, we see in the next 3 weeks, and how well the
governments can prepare for a second wave outbreak of the virus. The
infectious disease experts are advising that as we move through the
winter, we will face some second wave and third wave outbreaks of the
virus. But if we are prepared, act quickly enough, and keep up some
social distancing and good hygiene practices, we should be able to con-
tain those new outbreaks.
We can be extremely thankful that, so far, we in Australia have done
very well in controlling the virus, and the health damage caused by
COVID-19 has been minor. The 69 COVID-19 deaths we have seen so
far compares to the normal weekly death toll in Australia from all causes
of 3,000 deaths. But eternal vigilance is the price of freedom. Though
we are likely to see a relaxation of restrictions, we will still need to be
careful during the winter and continue to follow the rules if we want to
see continued success.
- John Goss
(The numbers in the table in this article were correct as at
2 PM on 22 April, but they are a rapidly moving feast.)
St Margaret’s News
11
April 2020