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NOV / DEC 2025
That time of year again
If it’ s October, it must be CPHI and for me that means wearing my feet to stumps around Messe Frankfurt to see as many as possible of the CDMOs, large and small, for our annual Pharma Special. It’ s in this edition and it goes through all the major announcements in and around the show, as well as my interviews with many senior executives who kindly dipped into their limited time to see me.
Many of my findings were echoed in De Facto’ s Biobeat Report released ahead of CPHI Frankfurt- not surprisingly since we were fishing in the same information pool. This evaluated the opportunities for CDMOs in 2026 in three phases of development, six modalities, four geographical regions and four other focus areas on a simple traffic light system. Only one had a red light: the Discovery / Preclinical stage, which is expected to show flat or low single-digit growth, though improving later in the year.
There are no doubt multiple reasons for this but clearly the main one is the weak state of biotech funding over recent years. This has impacted pretty much all CDMOs, albeit unevenly, with many projects on hold or companies stripping back to focus only on their most promising molecule.
With so much of the innovation coming from biotechs these days, their funding is the lifeblood of the industry and the strength of later-phase work depends heavily on the state of such funding years ago. Much of the talk on the show floor was about whether a recovery is beginning. Some had noted an uptick in recent months.
One reason for the lack of money for biotechs is the herd instinct in the investment markets, which have been chasing the AI pot of gold. We are unquestionably in an AI bubble right now, with 80 % of the share growth this year. Will the popping lead to a revival of interest in early-phase biotech, though? Or will biotechs, particularly Chinese companies, focus more on M & A and licensing deals as they have in the past few years?
What is important for CDMOs is to be ready for the revival when it comes. Report author Brian Scanlan said:“ My advice to CDMOs is to evaluate how their capabilities align with emerging industry needs by following drug substance and drug product trends from early preclinical through early clinical development. CDMOs that differentiate through technology, equipment and analytical expertise will be well positioned. Smaller CDMOs may even hold an edge through niche specialisation.”
Biobeat found much stronger growth in the clinical and commercial phases. CDMOs who play here have generally continued to do well, as my findings also show. The GLP-1 boom that has transformed the whole industry has been a goldmine for those with the deep pockets to invest in it.
Peptides in general have also continued to grow and are expected to do best in 2026, as are biologics, oligonucleotides, and the much smaller but hugely promising radiopharmaceuticals. In small molecules, the report finds a very large total addressable market but generally more competition( that also applies to high potency), with opportunities for niche areas such as ADCs, RNAi, PROTACs and others.
Or, as someone said on the show floor: SMASH – Small Molecules Are Still Here. That needs saying, because the demise of small molecules has been predicted since I first went into a much smaller but still hectic CPHI in Paris in 2002. It all seemed much more manageable back then. Or maybe I’ m just getting old ….
Enjoy the read.
Dr Andrew Warmington
EDITOR – SPECIALITY CHEMICALS MAGAZINE
SPECCHEMONLINE
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