A new world order
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I would normally wish you all a happy New Year at this point, but … well, you’ ve all seen the news too, right?
A recent online meme that made me chuckle ruefully read‘ Everyone: Good riddance to 2025, 2026 has got to be better’ above‘ 2026:’ with pictures of the explosions in Caracas and the US flag superimposed on Greenland. Even as I write this I am conscious that it may be out of date by the time you read it.
We may be on the cusp of a profound transformation of the world we have known for essentially fall our lives. The sudden disappearance of the Soviet bloc in 1989-91 was a huge change to the post-war world order, the inexorable rise of China has created a whole new dynamic, but what is happening now is arguably bigger.
The leader of the world’ s most powerful country is not just intervening in other countries without congressional approval, he is fracturing the whole Western alliance by openly coveting the territory of a West European nation. Some are calling it the end of NATO. It may certainly be the beginning of the end, and at a time when NATO is arguably more needed than ever.
Some analysts are also envisioning a new world order( to coin a phrase!) where the great powers dominate their own spheres of influence( to coin another), unrestrained by treaty or alliances, while leaving each other a free hand in theirs. It is a pretty grim thought, and not just for Taiwan and Ukraine.
In recent years, we have already seen how drastically geopolitical challenges – starting with the COVID-19 pandemic and continuing with the war in Ukraine, tariffs or the threat of them, even something as mundane as a ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal – can affect business. This all put the brakes on the seemingly irreversible trend towards globalisation and led companies to seek security of supply nearer to home, even if it costs more.
One thing that seems certain amid all the current chaos is that new, bigger geopolitical challenges will arise. And there is not a great deal of point in trying to assess what will happen next. We can’ t know what President Trump is likely to do next because he doesn’ t know either.
His moves over Venezuela and Greenland were not well thought-out. The former has untold masses of oil, but industry figures are already pointing out that the Venezuelan oil industry needs a scale of investment that they are not willing to make to bring it into the world market. The threat to seize Greenland is ostensibly about security, which is nonsensical.
And yet, business goes on. Since the turn of the year, Critical Metals has approved the construction of a pilot plant and multi-use storage facilities to support the development of its Tanbreez rare earths project in southern Greenland. This is part of a rare earths project valued at $ 2.68 billion.
Tanbreez is expected commence production in 2028, with an initial capacity of 85,000 tonnes / year of rare earth oxides per year, rising to 425,000 over a lifespan of 25 years. While the latest announcement is a very small part of that, it at least shows the company to be confident in a project that will start to challenge China’ s dominance in rare earths.
As to‘ what’ s next?’ for our industry and the wider world, I obviously have no idea and neither has anyone help. And yet, business goes on...
Dr Andrew Warmington
EDITOR – SPECIALITY CHEMICALS MAGAZINE
JAN / FEB 2026 SPECCHEMONLINE. COM
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