AGROCHEMICALS
Research by the EU ’ s Joint Research Centre ( JRC ) has concluded that , if the F2F and Biodiversity strategies were to be implemented immediately , there would be marked falls in supply of certain products : 15 % for cereals and oilseeds sectors and 12 % for vegetables and permanent crops . Meanwhile , producer prices would go up by 10 % because of tighter supply . Another study by the USDA came up with similar figures .
Figure 4 – European Green Deal & areas of impact on crop protection
“ My outlook is one of everincreasing development cost and an inevitable concentration on blockbusters as a result ,” Helwig concluded . Mixtures to extend product life will increase but innovation will slow , especially in herbicides . Companies will increasingly seek to offer a complete service package for farmers or even the food industry . For CMOs , all this means more flexibility , an ongoing need to balance their risks by working with other industries , notably battery materials . The choice between ‘ early partnering ’ and ‘ late supplier ’ will continue to be an issue , but will remain a caseby-case decision .
F2F pressures
There are plenty more regulatory pressures in the pipeline . Looking at the impact of the European Green Deal strategies on the crop protection sector , Oger noted that the F2F and Biodiversity Strategies , and the Chemical Strategy for Sustainability ( CSS ) were all published within the past 12 months . The key headline proposal in the F2F strategy is a 50 % reduction in the use of and risk from chemical pesticide , he said . These definitions are based on an indicator EC devised in 2018 , which assesses the hazard categories of the products already on the market and uses the market volumes as a weighting factor . Twice per year , CropLife Europe will publish where the industry is on this indicator . A 20 % reduction has already been achieved . Thus , Oger noted , the target is not the same as a pure 50 % reduction in volume and some substances may see recalculations of their weighting factor over time . Other key targets , all to be facilitated by digitalisation , are :
• A 50 % reduction in the use of hazardous pesticides , i . e . those that are candidates for substitution under existing legislation
• 25 % of EU agricultural land to be under organic production models by 2030
• 10 % of farmland to be set aside for non-productive measures As yet , Oger stressed , nothing is set in stone . The Council and the European Parliament must present their opinions and these will be taken into consideration and will be subject to negotiation when the EC drafts its legislative proposals for 2022-2023 . Not all Member States will agree . Nonetheless , “ the Commission has set a direction of travel ”.
Green diplomacy
The two strategies will have other impacts , notably in maximum residue level and impact tolerance legislation , especially in terms of trade where commodities treated with certain substances might be lost from the market and environmental factors may be evaluated before authorisations are granted . Changes to the GMO import authorisation process are likely . The EU is also seeking , via ‘ green diplomacy ’, to push a hazard-based approach in bilateral and multilateral trade discussions and trade agreements . Finally , the ‘ sustainable food systems ’ initiative is looming up on the horizon from 2023 onwards . This will have impacts on every aspect of the food chain from inputs onward . The CSS will also affect this sector , said Oger . The stated aim , pushed by NGOs , to “ lead by example , and , in line with international commitments , ensure that hazardous chemicals banned in the EU are not produced for export , including by amending relevant legislation if and as needed is “ very concerning for us as an industry ”.
Competitiveness compromised
Other speakers expressed concern about the consequences for the competitiveness of European companies but Mabon noted that the Indian and Chinese supply chains are also coming under pressure to reduce the impact of hazardous chemicals . If the EU ’ s example is followed , “ it might level the playing
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