Speciality Chemicals Magazine JAN / FEB 2022 | Page 18

Market drivers and regulatory pressures continue to pull the agrochemical industry in different directions . We report from the EFCG Crop Protection & Fine Chemicals Conference

What might crop up next ?

Market drivers and regulatory pressures continue to pull the agrochemical industry in different directions . We report from the EFCG Crop Protection & Fine Chemicals Conference

What are the recent dynamics and future drivers in the agrochemical industry ?” asked Garry Mabon , a partner at consulting firm AgbioInvestor , at the latest EFCG Crop Protection & Fine Chemicals Conference . As ever , this event took place ahead of Chemspec Europe , which meant that it was a virtual conference in 2021 . In 2020 , Mabon told delegates , the global industry saw the steady , slow recovery it has enjoyed since 2016 continue , with 2.5 % overall market growth to $ 60.8 billion . COVID-19 had “ a relatively minor impact ”, though the knock-on effects clearly fuelled rising prices throughout the sector , as it did in others . For 2021 , AgbioInvestor anticipates preliminary growth of 8.2 % worldwide to a new peak of $ 65.8 billion . This

Share
Figure 1 - Share of sales at high risk of non-approval in the EU by 2025 Source : AgbioInvestor
100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 %
Value
Active volume
Value
Active volume will come in large part on the back of strong volume recoveries and price increases almost across the board , especially in the Asia-Pacific market , which will grow by 14.1 % to $ 20.3 billion , fuelled also by currency movements . Europe ’ s market will be 8.7 % up to $ 13.7 billion , as much through currency movements as favourable conditions in Western Europe and the CIS . In constant terms , it will only grow 4.7 %. North America will be 5.0 % up to $ 10.3 billion . Latin America will be 4.4 % up to $ 18.7 billion , with negative currency effects masking strong volumes and prices . In constant terms , it would be 7.2 % up .
Changing market shares
Both Mabon and Dr Michael Helwig , who headed Lonza ’ s agro CMO business development until his
Value
Active volume
Value
Fungicides Herbicides Insecticides Others
PINK = High Risk ( includes already banned AIs ); GREY = Low / Moderate risk . Note : data based on 2019 baseline for key countries covering > 70 % EU CP sales .
Active volume retirement in 2019 , observed that six companies now have a combined market share of over 55 %. The largest are Bayer ( after the acquisition of Monsanto was completed , bringing a very big position of Monsanto ), Syngenta , BASF and Corteva , the latter two also benefitting from recent M & A activity . However , their recent CAGRs are much lower than those of companies like UPL and other top Indian and Chinese players . This reflects the increasing market dominance of off-patent products , whose share has grown steadily to nearly 75 %. Meanwhile proprietary and proprietary off-patent ( where the original maker has a market share of above 90 %) products have been in relative decline , partly because of the slowdown in new market introductions . However , Mabon noted , the regulatory removal of certain products where a proprietary product is an attractive alternative may be an upside for them in some cases .
Regulation impacts
Regulation has been another big burden on the originator sector in recent years , particularly in the EU , Mabon observed . In the EU , the fungicides mancozeb and chlorothalonil , and the insecticides chlorpyrifos-ethyl and – methyl have all been lost in recent years , representing a loss of significant resistance management tools for growers . Many more products are at high risk of non-approval by 2025 ( Figure 1 ), including nearly 40 % of the market by value in 2019 for fungicides ,
18 SPECIALITY CHEMICALS MAGAZINE ESTABLISHED 1981