ECONOMY
By Dr . Uric Dufrene
Planting the seeds of economic decline
The college attendance rate has been on a steady decline since 2015 . And as with so many other facets , this decline only accelerated during the Covid pandemic . The rate hit 53-percent in 2020 , compared to a national rate of 63 % and significantly under the high of 65-percent in 2015 . So indeed , Indiana is facing a crisis .
This crisis will not be as recognizable as a building on fire . Rather , the effects will be more visible as time goes by , for years and decades .
We ’ ve all heard the narrative played out in various circles , “ You don ’ t need to go to college ”, or “ College is not necessary ”. And that is correct . No one must go to college , and college is not necessary for certain occupations .
The evidence is quite clear , however . College graduates experience lower unemployment rates , higher earnings . Since 2001 a bachelor ’ s degree level of employment growth has far exceeded those with a high school diploma .
First let ’ s examine employment growth with a bachelor ’ s degree compared to a high school diploma .
In 1993 , employment with a high school diploma exceeded those with a bachelor ’ s degree by about 7 million .
In 2001 , employment with a high school diploma was equal to employment with a bachelor ’ s degree , at about 35 million .
Since 2001 , employment with a bachelor ’ s degree has been on an upward trajectory , adding 27 million employed .
Employment with a high school diploma has been basically flat since then . In fact , the employment level today is about 1 million lower than 2001 .
As of 2022 , employment with a baccalaureate degree exceeds employment with a high school diploma by 28 million .
In the past 30 years , the unemployment rate for bachelor ’ s degree holders has consistently been lower than those with a high school diploma .
Coming out of the Great Recession , the unemployment rate for high school diploma holders hit 11-percent . For bachelor ’ s degrees , the unemployment rate never exceeded five-percent . In the severe , but brief , Covid recession , the high school unemployment rate almost hit 18-percent . For bachelor ’ s it just exceeded eight-percent . Rates for both groups quickly receded , but current high school unemployment rates are almost double those for bachelor ’ s .
The numbers are more striking when we examine whole numbers , and not just a percent rate unemployed . More than half-a-million workers with a high school diploma remain unemployed . The total unemployed
12 SEPTEMBER / OCTOBER 2022