«According to Avito Nedvizhimost, from January to October 2022 the volume of offers for malls with an area of 10,000 square meters or more has increased by about 14% across Russia. Saint Petersburg has become the number one. The number of properties for sale has grown up to 50% there» Margarita Forbes, a financial consultant and practicing investor, points to the statistics.
She claims that there are active sales in Moscow, as well as in Krasnoyarsk, Cherepovets and Ufa. Meanwhile, the price varies widely. For example, on the Portal DA (Sber's product), there are over 20 shopping centres priced from 1 billion to 8.3 billion rubles.
According to CORE.XP analysts' calculations, in 2022 the retail real estate market was traditionally among the top three commercial real estate investment groups, whose share increased to 15% (compared to 11% in 2021) due to a number of deals in the regions.
«As an example of the biggest deals, a group of private investors purchased the Okhta Mall in Saint Petersburg, the acquisition of the Armada shopping centre in Orenburg by Inprom Estate, and Central Properties became owners of the Yarmarka shopping centre in Astrakhan. In a certain number of cases, investors have had the opportunity to obtain a high-quality asset due to the withdrawal of foreign market participants from the Russian sector. Due to the continuing exit of foreign owners from the Russian market in 2023, we could probably see significant deals in this sector as well» says Evgeny Tomilov, Senior Research Analyst at CORE.XP.
On Avito, properties can be sold through intermediaries and resellers, who can get up to 20-30% of the actual value of the retail real estate, warns Arsenia Razumovskaya. Besides, it is important to check such deals for legal clarity.
A major part of the offers on online platforms are outdated and small properties of up to 10,000 square meters. Major professional facilities are not sold there.
Selling shopping malls as a strategy: what’s the benefit?
Elena Mironova believes that most venues that are put on sale will not be saved even by an effective strategy. This is due to the fact that the whole concept was originally wrong. However, there are also some objects that can survive. In order to implement the strategy, it is necessary to think better about the concept, logistics, development strategy and establishment of a stream of clients.
«The most obvious strategy is when the shopping mall is purchased or built with the aim of further occupying and selling as a business. A rental pool is formed as well as a cashflow, after which it is sold. The cost is estimated not from the calculation of square meters, but a certain multiplier, typical of this kind of shopping centre market. The Net stream or the net operating stream is calculated, a tenth multiplier on average is taken from it» argues Belavin.
An expert gives an example of one of the most expensive deals was conducted to the Galereya shopping and entertainment centre in Saint Petersburg, and its location played a leading role.
66 I SHOPPING CENTERS RUSSIA I февраль 2023