SHIPPING AND MARITIME TRANSPORT 2012-2013 - ANAVE June 2012 | Page 9

ANAVE WORLD SEABORNE TRADE
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n the first half of 2012, the economic slowdown in China led to a global

By merchandise type
According to the International Energy Agency, world crude oil production increased in 2012 by 2.8%, to 90.9 million barrels per day (mbd), of which OPEC countries produced 37.5 mdb (41.3%). Clarkson estimates that 1,856 Mt of crude oil (+1.3%) and 887 Mt of products (+2.1%) were transported by sea. In t·miles, crude oil transport demand was 8.8 trillion (+2.7%) and product transport demand 2.6 trillion (+1.3%). Transport demand of the three main dry bulks (iron ore, coal and grain) totalled 2,525 Mt, increasing by 7.8%. Growth in t·miles was 6.7% reaching 13.6 trillion, moving 1,110 Mt (+5.4%) of iron ore, 1,047 Mt (+10.8%) of coal and 368 Mt (+6.7%) of grains. Also according to Clarkson, 1,480 Mt of goods in containers were transported in 2012 (+4.2), a much lower increase than the average growth registered in the period 2000-2012 (7.9%) and even somewhat lower in t·miles (+3, 0%). Also, 896 Mt of conventional general cargo (+3.2%) were also transported. For the first time since 1990, the LNG´s tonnage transported by sea fell slightly (-1.2%) to 244 Mt. Measured in t·miles, the decline was 1.8%.

growth lower than expected. In the second half it began a recovery that was relatively strong in emerging and developing economies, but weaker in advanced economies. Altogether, according to the International Monetary Fund, in 2012 world GDP increased by 3.2%. The advanced economies grew by 1.2% compared to 1.6% in 2011. Although the strong measures taken by the European authorities helped to improve confidence and financial conditions, the Euro area as a whole registered a GDP contraction of 0.6%. The U.S.A managed to avoid the fiscal abyss, but found other durable solutions for short-term fiscal risks and grew only 2.2%. Japan adopted more expansionary macroeconomic policies, in response to a greater than expected slowdown, reporting an increase of only 2.0%. Meanwhile, the relaxation on economical policies in emerging markets of key importance stimulated domestic demand: China's GDP increased by 7.8% and India’s 4.0%. In Spain, after the slight increase in 2012 (+0.7%), GDP fell by 1.4%. For 2013, the IMF prospects point to a very dynamic recovery for emerging economies, estimating that China will grow by 8.0% and India by 5.7%, but in advanced economies it is expected a lower growth than in 2012: Japan (+1.6%) and the USA (+1.9%), while the Euro zone will shrink slightly to 0.3%. For Spain it announces a slightly higher contraction than last year’s (-1, 6%).
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION

In 2012, according to Clarkson, the balance between supply and demand of shipping continued to deteriorate, increasing the excess supply in major fleet segments. Transport demand increased by 4.0%, reaching a new historical record of 9,468 million tons (Mt) of goods transported by sea and in t·miles, demand reached 46,16 trillion (1012), with a 4.2% increase. But according to the same source, the transport capacity of the world merchant fleet, measured in dwt, grew by 6.0%, ergo 50% more than demand. It is true that fleet statistics do not match among sources: Platou estimates a somewhat larger increase, of 7.4%, also in dwt, while, according to Lloyd's Register-Fairplay, the fleet grew considerably less: a 4.1% dw [??H??H[?\?\????H]\??Y?\?\?????\?Y?HH?\?YX?[?H[???ZY?X\??]??Z[[????]H\???HX?[X?\?XX?YX\?H??\??N????Y[\????X][??????XX???H?YB??B??