The Data Centric Architecture of a Factory Digital Twin
3 MANAGING THE TIMELINE IS A KEY CONSIDERATION FOR AN FDT
Awareness of time has always been part of modern business . The adage “ time is money ” is especially true in the 21 st Century . However , in manufacturing , the management of resources through time has never been more complex . Businesses are under pressure to offer increased product differentiation , lower cost , reduced variability , and greater responsiveness by having an accurate awareness of operations .
Complexity in managing resources through time arises for three reasons : causality , combinatorics , and uncertainty ( Pekny 2002 [ 9 ]). Causality is a simple concept : Tuesday follows Monday , night follows day , etc . However , achieving the goal of providing every customer ’ s services and / or product on time requires that all preparation and precursor steps be completed at the right time . Furthermore , in the real world , a business cannot go back to last week or last month to do something that has become apparent today as necessary for success .
The consideration of causality is often confounded by combinatorics . Businesses have many decisions about how they can operate , and their choices will set the stage for future success or failure . For example , consider making a single decision – should customer one or customer two be satisfied first . The future consists of two timelines , one in which customer one is satisfied followed by customer two and the other in which the order is reversed . Which of these two timelines is better depends on customer expectations and the steps necessary to satisfy the customer .
In real applications , businesses face multiple decisions at a given time and these decisions will interact with subsequent decisions . The number of combinations of different choices for these decisions means that businesses must select one of a huge number of timelines on which they can operate . A key function of an FDT is to optimize among these many timelines and choose the best one whenever significant new information is available . Historical experience can guide choices that appear equivalent .
Twentieth Century physics and business experience show that uncertainty is a fact of life that must be managed by making decisions that work well with a high probability regardless of how uncertainty plays out . In addition to different combinations of decision choices , the uncertainty of process outcomes presents businesses with a huge number of possible timelines on which they could operate , some with very different desirability .
There are several defenses against uncertainty . Carrying inventory , spare capacity , outsourcing contracts , and pricing strategy are all examples of insurance against uncertainty . However , a business can be over-insured . For example , carrying too much inventory incurs excessive cost relative to the probability that it will be needed . Spare capacity and inventory are to some extent interchangeable types of insurance . Inventory is not needed if there is enough time to utilize spare capacity to satisfy an unexpected order . In general , to acquire the right amount of insurance against uncertainty , a business would like to know that their insurance “ portfolio ” will
104 February 2025