stimates of the world population continue to grow. Statistics keep escalating in inconceivable
numbers—so large and ironically abstract that, like national debt, it is very difficult to understand the true meaning, impact and implication for the future, much less how to deal.
The most recent estimates of global population assert that we will number 9.7 billion people worldwide by 2050, an increase of 2.8 billion in just three decades. Much of this growth will occur in the developing world, but trends in the United States and Europe indicate that recent declines are less evident and are tending flat to a slight increase estimated to follow economic recovery in the industrialized nations.
The correlative requirements to sustain such a population are enormous. According to a 2012 United Nations World Water Development Report, freshwater demand will increase 70% to satisfy these basic water needs. “People in many parts of the world enjoy improved access to safe drinking water—86 per cent of the population in developing regions will have it by 2015. But there are still nearly one billion people without such access, and in cities the numbers are growing.” Add to this the sanitation needs of global urbanization—some 80% of wastewater that goes untreated—and you can begin at least to frame the question: where will all this water come from?
At the same time, the Report estimates “that the world will need 70% more food by the middle of the century, with demand increasing especially for livestock products. A surge in food production will lead to an increase of at least 19% in the water required for agriculture, which already accounts for 70% of freshwater use.” Add to this the impact of climate change that “alters rainfall patterns, soil humidity, glacier melt and river flow and also causes changes to underground water sources. Already, water-related disasters such as floods or droughts are rising in frequency and intensity.” The Report’s authors say that climate change will drastically affect food production in South Asia and Southern Africa between now and 2030, and water stress will spread to central and southern Europe thereafter, with much of the burden falling on the poor, exacerbating tensions and disparities between nations.
The Report concludes that this unprecedented growth in water demand threatens all major international development goals and requires a “radical rethink” of the way water is managed, massive new financing for infrastructure, better planning and governance, and innovative adaptations and methods to collect, conserve, recycle, and protect the precious little water we have—all devoutly to be wished.
But a radical rethink? What does that mean? Here’s an approach to consider. Fresh water available for human consumption, not locked in the ice caps, amounts to 1% of the finite amount of water—fresh and salt—on Earth. Everything discussed above is focused on that small, over-consumed, polluted, and wasted volume. The rest of the world’s water—97% of it—is available in the ocean to most nations and contributes not just to the freshwater cycle, but also to climate, food, energy, and much more—factors that are seen as threatened by this crisis rather than as an essential elements in its solution: a revised understanding and different engagement with the enormous hydraulic reservoir that is the ocean. Start there, and work backwards. Now that’s radical.
Link to 2012 United Nations World Water Development Report (4th Edition)
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