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Forecast : German SVoD subs to overtake UK
Germany will overtake
the UK in terms of SVoD
subscriptions in
2025 , according
to the Western
Europe SVOD
Forecasts report
from analyst
firm Digital
TV Research .
Germany will
have 52m SVoD
subscriptions by
2026 , with the UK
just behind with
51m .
There will
be 238m SVoD
subscriptions
across 18
Western European
countries by 2026 , up from
167m at end-2021 . From
the 71m additions over this
period , the UK will contribute
9m , Germany 17m , Italy 10m
and France 10m .
Netflix will remain the
largest SVoD platform , with
67m paying subscribers by
2026 , up by 10m at end-
2021 . Disney + will have 53m
subscribers by 2026 ; double
from 2021 . Amazon Prime
Video will remain just ahead of
Disney +.
“ HBO Max will have a
limited impact in Western
Europe , with 3.2 million paying
subscribers across seven
countries by 2026 ,” suggests
Simon Murray , principal
analyst at Digital TV Research .
“ It is not expected to start in
several key European countries
due to existing long-term deals
with pay-TV operators .”
Forecast : 302m European homes passed with FTTH by 2026
The FTTH Council Europe has
released two reports : the latest
figures of the FTTH Forecasts
for 2021 and 2026 and an
overview of fibre deployments
in rural areas .
The market forecasts cover
39 countries and provide an
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individual analysis for 15 countries .
Numbers are consistent with previous estimates and plan for around 197m homes
passed for FTTH / B in 2026 in EU27 + UK compared to 118m this year , with Germany , the UK , the Netherlands and Italy to experience the most remarkable growth .
According to the forecasts , the number of subscribers would reach 135m in 2026 for EU27 + UK and 197m for EU39 . The Council ’ s estimates also show that in 2026 , the FTTH / B take-up rate3 for EU27 + UK will be slightly higher ( 68.7 %) than for EU39 ( 65.3 %), both experiencing a steady evolution over the years .
Several factors have played a role in fostering the deployment of networks . The pandemic led to more data traffic and more demand , which has resulted in private investors boosting considerably their deployment projects in favour of FTTH / B to support the ongoing traffic increase . Adding to this , the launch of national programmes ( infrastructures and digitalisation ) and new European digital targets for 2025 and 2030 will lead to the acceleration of fullfibre connectivity across all European countries .
“ This trend will be intensified by new usage patterns which are encouraging operators to
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migrate to FTTH solutions , capable of delivering new services while contributing to the sustainability challenge ,” said Vincent Garnier , director
general of the FTTH Council Europe . “ The report shows there is still a massive growth potential in terms of connectivity in many EU countries , but overall deployment is progressing at a rapid pace . However , even with the infrastructure in place , the FTTH Council Europe considers that there is still a long way to go to reach a fully digitised society . We strongly believe that to embrace the next digital decade and shape Europe ’ s digital transformation by 2030 , take-up is the next challenge , and we call on policy-makers to take the necessary measures for endusers to benefit from the world of new possibilities offered by full-fibre connectivity .”
For the first time , the Council has also reported on full-fibre in rural Europe , which provides a general overview of the goals , actions and results of FTTH deployments in rural areas in a selection of 10 EU countries . While more than two-third of rural households currently have an NGA access ; FTTH / B coverage is still lagging behind in nondense areas with only 22 % households covered , compared to 45 % for all territories in EU27 + UK .
FTTH / B is progressively
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deployed , but at a very
different pace amongst the
countries under study . While
Spain is topping the ranking
with 60.5 % rural FTTH / B
coverage in 2020 ,
Germany has
still a long way
to go with only
9.8 % covered .
However it is
worth noting that
this represents a
higher proportion
of rural homes
than the EU
average and
indicates a more
balanced rollout
across rural and
urban areas of
Germany .
Forecast : E Europe to reach 47m SVoD subs
Analyst firm Digital TV
Research forecasts 47m SVoD
subscriptions in Eastern
Europe by 2026 ; more than
double from 22m at end-
2021 . Russia will have 20m
subscriptions by 2026 , up
from 11m at end-2021 .
Netflix will reach 10.36m
subscribers by 2026 , double
its 2021 total . Its Russian
subscriber base will climb due
to its partnership with National
Media Group , according to the
firm ’ s Eastern Europe SVoD
Forecasts report .
“ After several delays , Eastern
Europe ’ s SVoD sector will take
off from 2022 ,” advises Simon
Murray , principal analyst at
Digital TV Research . “ This is
prompted mainly by launches
from Disney +, Sky Showtime
and HBO Max . There is plenty
of room for growth beyond our
forecast period as only a fifth
of TV households will pay for
at least one SVoD platform by
2026 .”
Disney + will have 6.01m
subscribers by 2026 despite
only starting in mid-2022 . HBO
Max will reach 2.13m paying
subscribers by 2026 , having
officially started at the same
time as Disney +.
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