Senwes Scenario Oktober / November 2015 | Page 56

••• F UT UR E F OC U S THE WORLD WILL NEED AS MUCH FOOD AS WE CAN GROW This is one thing that truly gives me hope for our future as farmers – the peoples of the world need food and they need our expertise to grow it. Over the next 50 years our combined efforts must provide food for an extra 3,5 billion people and production of the three major cereal crops alone – maize, wheat and rice – needs to be increased by 70% until 2050. The same analysis, however, also highlights the fact that the negative impacts of climate change will certainly be felt in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa is warming faster than the global average and predictions are that by the end of this century, growing season temperatures will be greater than the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded in the past century. There is uncertainty in the projected changes in rainfall distribution patterns but climate models for future precipitation seem to predict increased precipitation in East Africa but decreased precipitation in Southern Africa. Another feature of climate risk which is predicted to increase is the increasing occurrence of extreme weather events with heavy downpours of rain, which could damage crops and remove valuable top soils and on the other hand present extended periods of drought in the growing seasons. Another consequence of the increase in temperature is the 54 increased soil temperatures and the reduced ability of the soil to retain moisture, which will affect growing conditions. There will be shifts in biospheres with fauna and flora virtually relocating according to ideal conditions. This for example means a spread of the malaria region as we know it and it is very likely that Gauteng will be right in the middle of a new malaria zone. ADAPT OR DIE? In 2010 the Food and Agricultural Organisation coined the term Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and this has now become a commonly used buzz word which includes conservation agriculture like no–till farming, irrigation systems which ensure efficient usage of water, use of new technology in farming, drones which monitor moisture using infrared, precision planting, precision equipment, nutrient monitoring, leaf analysis and capitalising on opportunities offered through the new cultivars available nowadays. Sometimes expensive investment can bring greater profits (no pain, no gain)! We can no longer depend on a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Every farming operation needs specific design and it will depend on variables from the size of the operation, the debt structure, the age of the owner, the equipment available and how old it is. Farmers will need to look at post- Okt/Nov 2015 • SENWES Scenario harvest value-add opportunities and ensure that a comprehensive marketing strategy is in place. Smaller operations can be profitable with excellent management decisions, but we cannot continue with ‘business as usual’ and keep doing things the same way our forefathers did. This is what will sink the ship! The futures market is another useful but daunting tool which needs to be grasped and used. R=HxV Climate-smart agriculture is about adapting or changing age-old practices, using available technology, turning to precision farming methods to enhance on-farm efficiencies and manage costs of fertilisation and installing monitors on the seed bins so the seed is placed with precision. These tools contribute to significant savings. The bottom line is R = H x V: Analyse your risk and be willing to make some changes.