•••
F UT UR E F OC U S
THE WORLD WILL NEED
AS MUCH FOOD AS
WE CAN GROW
This is one thing that truly gives
me hope for our future as farmers
– the peoples of the world need
food and they need our expertise
to grow it. Over the next 50 years
our combined efforts must provide
food for an extra 3,5 billion people
and production of the three major
cereal crops alone – maize, wheat
and rice – needs to be increased
by 70% until 2050. The same
analysis, however, also highlights
the fact that the negative impacts
of climate change will certainly be
felt in sub-Saharan Africa. Africa
is warming faster than the global
average and predictions are that by
the end of this century, growing
season temperatures will be greater
than the most extreme seasonal
temperatures recorded in the past
century. There is uncertainty in
the projected changes in rainfall
distribution patterns but climate
models for future precipitation
seem to predict increased
precipitation in East Africa but
decreased precipitation in Southern
Africa. Another feature of climate
risk which is predicted to increase
is the increasing occurrence of
extreme weather events with
heavy downpours of rain, which
could damage crops and remove
valuable top soils and on the
other hand present extended
periods of drought in the growing
seasons. Another consequence of
the increase in temperature is the
54
increased soil temperatures and
the reduced ability of the soil to
retain moisture, which will affect
growing conditions. There will
be shifts in biospheres with fauna
and flora virtually relocating
according to ideal conditions.
This for example means a spread
of the malaria region as we
know it and it is very likely that
Gauteng will be right in the
middle of a new malaria zone.
ADAPT OR DIE?
In 2010 the Food and Agricultural
Organisation coined the term
Climate Smart Agriculture
(CSA) and this has now become
a commonly used buzz word
which includes conservation
agriculture like no–till farming,
irrigation systems which ensure
efficient usage of water, use of
new technology in farming,
drones which monitor moisture
using infrared, precision planting,
precision equipment, nutrient
monitoring, leaf analysis and
capitalising on opportunities
offered through the new cultivars
available nowadays. Sometimes
expensive investment can bring
greater profits (no pain, no gain)!
We can no longer depend
on a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach.
Every farming operation needs
specific design and it will depend
on variables from the size of the
operation, the debt structure, the
age of the owner, the equipment
available and how old it is.
Farmers will need to look at post-
Okt/Nov 2015 • SENWES Scenario
harvest value-add opportunities
and ensure that a comprehensive
marketing strategy is in
place. Smaller operations can
be profitable with excellent
management decisions, but we
cannot continue with ‘business
as usual’ and keep doing things
the same way our forefathers did.
This is what will sink the ship!
The futures market is another
useful but daunting tool which
needs to be grasped and used.
R=HxV
Climate-smart agriculture is
about adapting or changing
age-old practices, using available
technology, turning to precision
farming methods to enhance
on-farm efficiencies and
manage costs of fertilisation
and installing monitors on the
seed bins so the seed is placed
with precision. These tools
contribute to significant savings.
The bottom line is R = H x V:
Analyse your risk and be willing
to make some changes.