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Western Production Area: El Niño/La Niña episodes: Deviation from the 5-year
rolling average yield.
maps are reflected on the right.
The Weather Bureau predicts
below-average rainfall for the
first part of the year, namely for
September to the end of October
2017. For the period November
to the end of January 2018, the
Weather Bureau predicts a good
chance of rain over the central
summer rainfall area of South
Africa.
This the period during which
the success of the summer crop is
determined.
Although the maps are not
provided, the Weather Bureau
does not predict significantly
higher temperatures for the mid-
summer season. This gives us
hope for the coming season. For
the early part of the season, from
September to mid-November,
above average temperatures are
predicted. Fortunately this is
before the reproductive stage
of the summer crops and crop
performance should not be
affected significantly.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
At the turn of the season there
were rumours of an El Niño-
type of season, which usually
results in sub-optimal and often
catastrophic crop performance.
We were very discouraged.
However, the most important
weather prediction services have
changed their predictions and a
neutral type of season is predicted.
This type of season usually results
in average to above-average crop
performance. A later summer with
higher than normal temperatures
is predicted, whereafter matters
should improve. We trust that this
will be the case.
SENWES Scenario • OCT/NOV 2017
47