••••
COME R AI N OR S H I N E
What will the outcome of
the new season be?
> CONTINUED FROM PAGE 47
America. This results in warmer
sea temperatures in the NINO3-4
area. It is not usually good news
for the expected rainfall for the
summer season in South Africa.
The index is fairly constantly close
to zero at present, which is not
overly concerning.
What is happening to the sea
temperatures in the NINO3-4
area in the Pacific Ocean is even
more important. When the average sea temperature of the area
is warmer than normal, it means
that it is having a certain impact
on the moisture circulation patterns of the world, which normally has a negative impact on the
expected rainfall over Southern
Africa. We are very optimistic
about the fact that the sea temperature in the NINO 3-4 area
is cooling down. We are coming
from a period during which the
sea temperatures in this area were
the highest in many years and
we experienced a very strong El
Niño-episode with poor yields in
the western parts of the summer
rainfall area.
The variance of the sea temperature in the NINO 3-4 area is
indicated in the two maps below.
The sea temperature variance
of the previous season (August
2015) is indicated, as well as the
Augustus 2016 sea temperature
variance. It is evident that the
sea temperature in the NINO
3-4 area is much lower than the
C
M
Y
CM
MY
previous season. The chances of
the development of a strong La
Niña-type season this year are
fairly good. As experienced in the
past, La Niña-type seasons have
rendered better crop yields than El
Niño-type seasons on average.
It is concerning that most
weather prediction services indicate a late rainfall season, namely
that it will only commence at the
end of November. The poor condition of our natural and planted
grazing and the low water levels
of our most important dams are
Variation of Sea-surface Temperature Variation of Sea-surface Temperature
from Average August 2015
from Average August 2016
Less than 2 below
2 to 1.5 below
1.5 to 1 below
1 to 0.5 below
0.5 to 0 below
0 to 0.5 above
0.5 to 1 above
1 to 1.5 above
1.5 to 2 above
Greater than 2 above
48
OCT/NOV 2016 • SENWES Scenario
concerning. The maps above were
provided by the South African
Weather Service and reflect the
expected rainfall for the coming
season. The expected trend in
respect of spring rain is shared by
various weather prediction services. We hope, however, that the
summer rain will arrive earlier.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
There is reason for optimism
about the coming season. In
most instances we have better
underground moisture conditions
and indications are that we are
moving away from the recent El
Niño-episode. However, we are
concerned about the predicted
late commencement of the rainy
season. We pray, hope and trust
that there will be relief after the
very dry conditions experienced
by most producers over the past
few years.
CY
CMY
K