Senwes Scenario October / November 2016 | Page 49

••• •• CO ME R A IN O R SHIN E •• What will the outcome of the new season be? THYS GROBBELAAR SENIOR GRAIN ANALYST, SENWES GRAINLINK RAINFALL THIS SEASON The summer season rainfall is measured from 1 July every year. July has the lowest rainfall on average of all the months in the Senwes area, with an average of 2 mm. The average rainfall during July of this year in the Senwes area was 46 mm. It is said that good rains during the winter usually result in lower rainfall figures in mid-summer. There has been four seasons since 1904 during which more than 35 mm of rain fell during July on the Highveld, during the 1918/19, 1939/40, 1943/44 and 1957/58 seasons. Above average rainfall was received during all four seasons. The 1943/44 season was the wettest season on the Highveld since the measurement of rainfall commenced. No rain was received over the largest part of the Senwes area during August. See the map on the top right. Above average rainfall was received during the first two months of the season over the traditional Senwes area of operation. Districts in the Senekal area received the highest rainfall in history for July. The map bottom right reflects the areas where good rainfall was received over the past two months. This rain contributed hugely towards the soil moisture conditions over a reasonably large area of the traditional Senwes area of operation, which in turn contributes towards optimism for a better season. Total rainfall for August 2016 for the traditional Senwes area. Cumulative rainfall for the period 1 July 2016 to 31 August 2016 in the Senwes area. PROSPECTS FOR THE 2016/2017 SEASON There have been a number of negative reports in the news about the climate prospects for the coming season. However, not all weather forecasting services agree with these negative reports. Let's take a look at the most important climate indicators. Meteorologists base their pre- dictions for the coming season on a number of indicators. The Southern Oscilation Index is one of the important indicators and indicates the direction of wind in the central part of the Pacific Ocean. When the index is negative, it means that the winds in the central Pacific Ocean mainly blow from Australia to South > CONTINUE ON PAGE 48 SENWES Scenario • OCT/NOV 2016 47