NEWS
THE JOURNEY TOWARDS
A THRIVING CONTINENTAL AGRI-FOOD SYSTEM
The year 2021 was one of critical conversations about global agri-food systems – the processes and methods through which farming produces food .
Following on the heels of the COVID- 19 pandemic and a rise in global poverty , 2021 was a year for recovery and an urgent call to transform food systems if the world is to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals ( SDG ) targets by 2030 .
In this opinion article Lulama Ndibongo Traub ( Technical Chair , Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes ( ReNAPRI ), Stellenbosch University ), Edward Mabaya ( Research Professor , Cornell University ) and Wandile Sihlobo ( Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa ( Agbiz ) and a member of the President ’ s Economic Advisory Council ) share their thoughts on the continent ’ s agri-food systems .
HIGH LEVEL DIALOGUES
The United Nations Food System Summit in September was a call to action and a challenge to nations to build “ transformed ” food systems . It was followed by the development of the African Common Position . This outlines how countries on the continent plan to heed that call and challenge . Then came COP26 : sustainable , resilient agri-food solutions are , after all , key to mitigating the effects of climate change .
If commitments are met , these high level dialogues have the potential to shape the trajectory of Africa ’ s agri-food system over this next decade . But how can global conversations be internalised into systems ? How does the continent build sustainable , resilient food markets ? What roles do private sector actors and public policy-makers play ?
As specialists in food systems keen to tackle these big questions , we ’ ve drawn on key findings from the African Agriculture Status Report and identified three salient features about Africa ’ s agri-food system . These are that food demand is expected to increase ; that Africanbased agri-businesses are investing ; and , finally , that transforming the food industry will take time in light of persistent informality .
The commitments made on the global stage must now be followed through with policy and regulatory reform at national , regional and continental levels . Strategic investments are also needed , particularly to target choke points in the agri-food value chains .
We predict that the journey to transformation of the food industry will be long . It comes with many risks – and , for those who move first and well , high returns .
RISING DEMAND , RISING INVESTMENT Over the coming decade , sub-Saharan Africa ’ s food demand is projected to rise . This will make it one of the world ’ s largest sources of additional demand , rising from 10 % to 11 % of total global calorie consumption by 2030 . The continent ’ s food market is projected to reach a value of a staggering one trillion dollars by 2030 .
Asia is another important food market which will be driven by the growing population . Studies show a potential rise in population and food demand . The difference with Africa ’ s projected demand , however , is that Asia will likely demand high value products because of relative improvement in incomes .
In Africa , people ’ s incomes will not rise at the same rate . So while people will demand more and better food , they will not necessarily be able to afford a more diversified , protein-rich diet . This raises questions around the pace of the dietary transformation on the continent going forward . The “ dietary transformation ” trend is likely not very sustainable if gainful wage employment can ’ t be ensured .
Despite this concern , it is clear that agri-business in Africa presents vast opportunities for private sector firms . African-owned businesses are already investing : between 2015 and 2020 , the top three leading retail outlets in South Africa expanded their African footprint by increasing the number of outlets across the continent . One , Pick ' n Pay , has increased the total number of stores by 55 % in the past five years , from 1,242 to 1,925 .
Examining leading retailers ’ annual reports , we can see that despite the uncertainty and disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic , companies were able to adapt by using digital platforms and new logistical models ; this allowed them to expand their sales despite the disruption .
But this expansion of investment is not just occurring at the retail level . African-owned enterprises operating at all levels of the agrifood system are expanding their own footprint through increased investments in the sector . Many of the firms listed as the Food Business Africa Top 100 companies in 2020 , are Africanowned and have either entered into the food industry or expanded and diversified their operations over the past two decades .
INFORMALITY However , despite this evidence of emerging
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SENWES SCENARIO | HERFS � AUTUMN 2022