NEWS
THE SOUTH AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE
From South Africa ' s agriculture and agri-business perspective , the impact of potentially rising tensions in Russia-Ukraine would be felt in the shorter term through the global agricultura ; commodity prices channel . There is direct agricultural trade between the two countries , but we view it as minimal .
South Africa typically imports wheat from Russia and Ukraine . For example , Russia is the 17th largest agricultural products supplier to South Africa , and Ukraine is the 44th . But in respect of exports , Russia is a notable market – the 13th largest .
South Africa ' s products to Russia and Ukraine are mainly citrus , nuts , vegetables and tobacco . South Africa has stronger agricultural ties with Africa , Asia , the United Kingdom and the European Union . For example , in the third quarter of 2021 , the African continent and Asia were the largest markets for South Africa ' s agricultural exports , accounting for 35 % and 33 % in value terms , respectively . The European Union was the third largest market , taking up 23 % of South Africa ' s agricultural exports . The balance of 9 % value constitutes the Americas and other regions of the world .
The African countries that would perhaps be more exposed to worsening tension between Russia and Ukraine are the Maghreb regions , specifically Egypt , Morocco and Tunisia . Within the Sub-Saharan Africa region , Nigeria , Sudan and Tanzania would be the most exposed countries because of the large volumes of wheat they import from Russia and Ukraine . Other areas such as the Middle East and Asia import a substantial volume of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine and Russia , which can also be directly affected by the disruption in trade .
In sum , Russia and Ukraine are both key producers and exporters of global agricultural products . Although our domestic challenges are vital for the sustainability and growth of primary agriculture and agri-business , the international events will indirectly affect the business conditions here at home .
We would likely experience the impact of the Russia-Ukraine tensions through global price channels in the near term . Still , the situation remains fluid and uncertain but will require close monitoring .
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SENWES SCENARIO | HERFS � AUTUMN 2022 13