NEWS estimates at BFAP put the average white maize yield at 4.3t / ha , a little below the 3-year average , bringing the projected white maize harvest to 6.78 million tonnes in 2022 . For yellow maize an average yield of 5.5t / ha is estimated , resulting in a 5.69 million tonnes of yellow maize for 2022 . This brings the total maize harvest for 2022 to 12.46 million tonnes , a 3.7 million ton decrease from 2021 . However , high stock levels from the 16.16 million ton harvest in 2021 will most likely dampen the price impact .
SOYBEANS
Soybeans are planted slightly earlier in the summer planting season , and were therefore somewhat more mature when the heavy rains came in December and January . During the sunny and warm last two weeks of January 2022 , many farmers reported that soybean plants largely recovered very well . BFAP estimates the national average soybean yield to be slightly below the 3-year average , at 1.7t / ha . This brings the soybean harvest to 1.547 million tonnes off a record area of 910 000 hectares .
SUNFLOWER PLANTINGS
Sunflower plantings were still in progress at the time of the preliminary estimates of the Crop Estimate Committee . As the Northwest province contributes the largest share of sunflower area , where lower water-logging impacts were reported than in the Free State Province , BFAP estimates the national average sunflower yield to be very close to the 3-year average at 1.3t / ha , bringing the 2022 sunflower harvest to 654 thousand hectares .
IN SUMMARY
With an initial estimated maize harvest of 12.5 million tonnes plus high stock levels at the beginning of the marketing season , South Africa should have sufficient maize to meet local consumption ( approximately 12 million tonnes ) as well as the traditional import requirements of our neighbours .
Hence , large scale price gains will most likely be mitigated and prices will tend to trade closer to export parity levels , unless production conditions deteriorate further and crop estimates are reduced below current expectations .
Export parity price levels are determined by the exchange rate and global prices . Any movement of these drivers will also have an influence on domestic prices levels .
SENWES SCENARIO | HERFS � AUTUMN 2022 9