Senwes Scenario June / July 2017 - Page 48

•••• COME R AI N OR S H I N E > CONTINUED FROM PAGE 45 map of South Africa that the largest part of the summer rainfall area has received above average rainfall. Far above aver­ age rainfall figures have been measured in particularly parts of the Northwest province. It is clear that the Eastern and Western Cape have received significantly below average rainfall over the past 10 months. INDICATORS FOR THE REST OF THE 2016/2017 SEASON: The SOI is decreasing, which is an indication that an El Niño-type season can be expected. However, it is too early to say with certainty whether an El Niño-type season will be a reality. There should be more certainty from September/October this year. Below average crops are usually realised during 6 out of 10 El Niño-years. Sea temperatures are, however, increasing in the NINO 3-4 area, which confirms the suspicion of an El Niño this coming season. The South African Weather Bureau indicates in its latest Seasonal Climate Watch that above average rainfall is pre­ dicted for the period June to August 2017. The map below reflects the regions where above average rainfall is expected. It is concerning, however, that above average rain is not predicted for the Western Cape. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION A good season was experienced the past season as far as clima­te and crop production was con­ cerned. The El Niño ghost is, however, appearing on the horizon again. The carry-over moisture situation in most of the summer rainfall area looks promising, which could miti­ gate the impact of a possible El Niño. EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD MAY TO SEPTEMBER 2017 (SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER BUREAU) 46 JUN/JUL 2017 • SENWES Scenario