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D CO
RUPPE
ME R
L A
S IN
OP
O D
R IE
SHIN
DA E
K • •
How is the season
progressing?
THYS GROBBELAAR
SENIOR GRAIN ANALYST,
SENWES GRAINLINK
RAINFALL THIS SEASON
The 2016/17 season is coming
to an end and it is interesting to
see whether the predictions made
actually realised. Meteorologists
predicted a La Niña-type season,
which is normally associated with
above average rainfall for the
season and usually with above
average yields. This made every
one optimistic about the new
season. As the season progressed,
it became evident that the status
of the season was changing from
a La Niña-type season to a neutral
season. People became pessimistic
since below average rainfall was
expected. Good rain was received
from December 2016 until the
end of February 2017 and indi
cations are that the largest maize
crop in history will realise. The
largest part of the traditional
Senwes area received above average
rainfall for this season, as indicated
in the map (right).
Rainfall in the South-Western
Free State was, however, lower
than normal. It has the impli
cation that lower volumes of
dry-land wheat will realise. Rain
at planting time was simply not
enough. Producers have indicated
that they would be planting wheat
on their fallow fields in the central
parts of the Senwes area.
Graph 1reflects the rainfall
for this season, compared to the
THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1 JULY 2016 TO 30 APRIL 2917 AS A
% OF THE LONGTERM RAINFALL
Graph 1. A comparison between the average rainfall of the 2015/16, the 2016/17
and the long term rainfall for the Senwes area.
previous drought season and the
long-term rainfall per month
and cumulatively. The long-term
average rainfall for the traditional
Senwes area is 556 mm per sea
son. The cumulative rainfall this
season was 701mm. The good dis
tribution of rain during the active
growing process of the summer
crops resulted in the large crop
expected.
The South African Weather
Bureau indicates in its rainfall
> CONTINUED ON PAGE 46
SENWES Scenario • JUN/JUL 2017
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