Senwes Scenario June / July 2017 - Page 46

•••• G RAI N M AR K E T P R O S P E C T S May and June 2017 > CONTINUED FROM PAGE 47 continuously from December 2016 until the end of March. The weakening of the rand has, however, recently supported the price at times. The price will probably remain at this level until it becomes clear that significant quantities of white maize will be exported. As already discussed, the rand can have a significant impact on the price. Oilseed complex Sunflower and soy-beans Based on the third crop estimate of the NCEC, the NAMC cal­ culated carry-over stock levels of sunflower of more than 172,000 tons for the marketing year. The sunflower crop estimate was adjusted downwards to a signifi­ cant extent. However, conflicting feedback is being received on the sunflower yields realising. Leaf spot and other diseases had a neg­ ative impact on yields. This will hopefully result in lower sunflower carry-over stock levels, which will hopefully result in the prices recovering at a later stage. The sunflower price realising on the JSE is lower than the calculated derived export parity. Due to the fact that sunflower is normally sold by producers immediately, the so-called harvesting pressure Graph 4. Die langtermyn Julie-kontrak witmielieprys asook die prysbeweging op Safex. Graph 5. Die seisoensprysverloop van die sojaboon spotprys op Safex. 44 JUN/JUL 2017 • SENWES Scenario being experienced is also worse than in the case of maize. Graph 5 reflects the season price trend of soy-beans. The soy- bean price usually declines from mid-January and it usually recovers from mid-May. The decline started by mid-January this year and the decline has been significant. The maize price seems to have stabi­ lised. T