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G RAI N M AR K E T P R O S P E C T S
May and June 2017
> CONTINUED FROM PAGE 47
continuously from December
2016 until the end of March.
The weakening of the rand has,
however, recently supported the
price at times. The price will
probably remain at this level until
it becomes clear that significant
quantities of white maize will be
exported. As already discussed, the
rand can have a significant impact
on the price.
Oilseed complex
Sunflower and soy-beans
Based on the third crop estimate
of the NCEC, the NAMC cal
culated carry-over stock levels of
sunflower of more than 172,000
tons for the marketing year. The
sunflower crop estimate was
adjusted downwards to a signifi
cant extent. However, conflicting
feedback is being received on the
sunflower yields realising. Leaf
spot and other diseases had a neg
ative impact on yields. This will
hopefully result in lower sunflower
carry-over stock levels, which
will hopefully result in the prices
recovering at a later stage. The
sunflower price realising on the
JSE is lower than the calculated
derived export parity. Due to the
fact that sunflower is normally
sold by producers immediately,
the so-called harvesting pressure
Graph 4. Die langtermyn Julie-kontrak witmielieprys asook die prysbeweging op
Safex.
Graph 5. Die seisoensprysverloop van die sojaboon spotprys op Safex.
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JUN/JUL 2017 • SENWES Scenario
being experienced is also worse
than in the case of maize.
Graph 5 reflects the season
price trend of soy-beans. The soy-
bean price usually declines from
mid-January and it usually recovers
from mid-May. The decline started
by mid-January this year and the
decline has been significant. The
maize price seems to have stabi
lised.
T