•••
• •
G R A IN MA RKE T PR O SPE CT S • •
Energy prices
As already known, the Americans use approximate
ly 35% of their total maize crop to produce ethanol.
Consumption is 44% of domestic consumption,
excluding exports. The international crude oil price has
declined, which has a negative impact on ethanol prices.
At the current price levels of American corn, seven of
the largest ethanol plants in the USA are realising a gross
margin of between $0.24 and $0.43 per bushel. This is a
very low margin and will probably limit the maize price
movement to a reasonable extent.
of white maize and 1,2 million
tons of yellow maize. For this rea
son, white and yellow maize are
trading in the region of calculated
import parity at present. The
difference between the calculated
import and export parity can be
up to R2 300 per ton, depend
ing on the country from which
imports and exports are done.
The calculated export parity of
white maize was, at the time of
writing of this article, approxi
mately R100 per ton lower than
the JSE cash price. Exports will
probably struggle to get on track,
until such time as the JSE price
moves closer to calculated export
parity.
Graph 4 reflects the price
movements of the white maize
July 2017 contract on the JSE.
The white maize price declined
Graph 3. Light sweet crude oil price/barrel (Reuters).
Price drivers in the domestic
grain and oilseeds markets
White and yellow maize price
trends on the South African
Exchange
The third crop estimate of
the National Crop Estimate
Committee (NCEC) for the
season predicts the second largest
crop in South African history.
Chances are that the estimate will
even be increased. This means
that, according to the calcula
tions of the National Agricultural
Marketing Council (NAMC),
there will be an exportable surplus
of approximately 1,3 million tons
> CONTINUED ON PAGE 44
Table 1: The calculated import parity of South African white maize to Southeast Asia.
Maize origin: Randfontein Load cost advantage USA-$11
Delivery point: Southeast Asia Basis CBT to FOB($/t) $22
Date: 10 May 2017 Quality premium:
$5
USA CBT yellow maize price ($/bu)
Exchange rate
R/$
3,40 3,50 3,60 3,70 3,80 4,00 4,20 4,40
12,50 R1 536 R1 585 R1 635 R1 684 R1 733 R1 831 R1 930 R2 028
12,75 R1 579 R1 629 R1 679 R1 729 R1 779 R1 880 R1 980 R2 081
13,00 R1 621 R1 672 R1 724 R1 775 R1 826 R1 928 R2 031 R2 133
13,25 R1 664 R1 716 R1 768 R1 820 R1 873 R1 977 R2 081 R2 186
13,50 R1 706 R1 760 R1 813 R1 866 R1 919 R2 025 R2 132 R2 238
14,00 R1 792 R1 847 R1 902 R1 957 R2 012 R2 122 R2 233 R2 343
14,50 R1 877 R1 934 R1 991 R2 048 R2 105 R2 219 R2 333 R2 448
SENWES Scenario • JUN/JUL 2017
43