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COME R AI N OR S H I N E
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map of South Africa that the largest part
of the summer rainfall area has received
above average rainfall. Far above aver
age rainfall figures have been measured
in particularly parts of the Northwest
province. It is clear that the Eastern and
Western Cape have received significantly
below average rainfall over the past 10
months.
INDICATORS FOR THE REST OF THE
2016/2017 SEASON:
The SOI is decreasing, which is an
indication that an El Niño-type season
can be expected. However, it is too
early to say with certainty whether an
El Niño-type season will be a reality.
There should be more certainty from
September/October this year. Below
average crops are usually realised during
6 out of 10 El Niño-years.
Sea temperatures are, however,
increasing in the NINO 3-4 area, which
confirms the suspicion of an El Niño
this coming season.
The South African Weather
Bureau indicates in its latest
Seasonal Climate Watch that
above average rainfall is pre
dicted for the period June to
August 2017. The map below
reflects the regions where above
average rainfall is expected. It is
concerning, however, that above
average rain is not predicted for
the Western Cape.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
A good season was experienced
the past season as far as climate
and crop production was con
cerned. The El Niño ghost
is, however, appearing on the
horizon again. The carry-over
moisture situation in most of
the summer rainfall area looks
promising, which could miti
gate the impact of a possible El
Niño.
EXPECTED RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD MAY TO
SEPTEMBER 2017 (SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER BUREAU)
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JUN/JUL 2017 • SENWES Scenario