Senwes Scenario June / July 2016 | Page 38

••• CO L U M N THYS GROBBELAAR GRAIN MARKET PROSPECTS: MAY 2016: Market movements THYS GROBBELAAR SENIOR GRAIN ANALYST, SENWES GRAINLINK BACKGROUND International fundamental factors The strength of the dollar against other important international currencies, such as the euro, plays a huge role in international price formation of certain commodities. The American dollar weakened by nearly 10% against the euro since November 2015. As a result American corn is relatively cheap in the world market. This, in turn, encourages exports and brings about a decline in calculated carry-over stock levels, which support prices. Graph 1. Dollar/Euro exchange rate movement. Graph 2. The international crude oil price/barrel. (CME) Graph 3. Price movement of American yello corn on CBOT. (c/bu) 36 JUN/JUL 2016 • SENWES Scenario