NEWS
COVID-19
THIRD WAVE
WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR
The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic had devastating effects on South Africans . The second wave , which began after the festive season travels and celebrations saw a spike in infections and death in the first months of 2021 . Experts say that South Africa is currently on the verge of a third Covid-19 wave with some provinces already experiencing spikes in infection rates .
Kefiloe Manthata Senwes Journalist
The vaccine rollout is also moving at a slow pace . By 5 June 2021 only 479 768 ( 0.96 %) of South Africa ’ s population of about 60-million people had been fully vaccinated , and 870 477 had received one of two shots of Pfizer ’ s Covid-19 vaccine . As a result , we are still heavily reliant on people being disciplined in adhering to government enforced regulations , social distancing , wearing masks and regular handwashing .
According to the former chair of the Covid-19 ministerial advisory committee , Salim Abdool Karim , a country would need to vaccinate well over 70 % of people of 60 and older to reduce deaths and hospitalisations significantly .
ARE WE EXPERIENCING A THIRD WAVE ?
How do we know if we are currently experiencing a third wave of infections ? According to a formular adopted by the Ministerial Advisory committee , which was developed the South African Covid-19 modelling consortium , we can determine which provinces are currently within the third wave .
The formula says a Covid-19 wave starts when the seven-day moving average of new cases exceeds 30 % of the peak of the previous wave . A moving average means that you have taken numbers for each of the seven days selected ( in this case new Covid cases ), added them up and divided them by seven to get the average of those days .
On 6 June 2021 , the national seven-day rolling average of daily cases was 4 820 . At the peak of the second wave , it was 19 042 , which was reached on 11 January .
The average daily cases on 6 June is 25 % of the peak of the second wave . So , technically , by the criteria being used , South Africa is not yet in the third wave .
But , at the peak of the first wave which was on 19 July 2020 , the seven-day rolling average was 12 584 cases . The 4 820 cases on 6 June are 38 % of the peak reached in the first wave , so by that measure , we are now in the third wave .
In other words , whether the country is in the third wave depends on which of the first two waves is used as the baseline .
The Free State , Northern Cape and Gauteng are the provinces currently experiencing the highest increases in daily infections and the numbers keep rising . Until vaccinations reach the desired numbers , and herd immunity is achieved , South Africans must remain vigilant and keep themselves and those around them safe and free from infection .
32
SENWES SCENARIO | WINTER � 2021