••••
COME RAIN OR SHINE
How is the season progressing ? > CONTINUED FROM PAGE 45
ular received good rain , which brought well-deserved relief .
The rainfall situation for this season until the end of January 2017 is reflected in the map at the right . To date the south-western part of the Free State has not received a lot of rain . The Reddersburg , Smithfield and Rouxville areas in particular are still very dry . The central and eastern parts of the traditional Senwes area have received good rain to date and crops look promising .
Graph 1 reflects the progression of season in terms of rainfall . It rained very well during January and the cumulative rainfall for the season is higher than the longterm cumulative rainfall .
INDICATORS FOR THE 2016 / 2017 SEASON At this stage the sea temperatures are still lower than the long-term average , which is a good sign for climatological prospects for the rest of the season . Sea temperatures have been of such a nature that this season does not qualify as a La Niña-type season . This , however , is not a huge concern since the two largest maize crops in South African history realised during neutral seasons .
THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1 JULY 2016 TO 31 JANUARY 2017
Graph 1 . A comparison between the average rainfall of the 2015 / 16 , the 2016 / 17 and the long term rainfall for the Senwes area .
The SOI is neutral at this stage , which is also comforting .
We can expect average to above average rainfall for the central part of the summer rainfall area for the rest of the season according to the predictions of the South African Weather Service for the next five months .
46
FEB / MAR 2017 • SENWES Scenario
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION The season started on a difficult note , particularly in the western parts of the traditional Senwes area of operation . Fortunately good rainfall was received since the end of December 2016 . Predictions for the rest of the season are promising . We hope and pray that this will be a blessed season from a climatological point of view .