•••
CO L UM N
tional Crop Estimate Committee
(NCEC). The National Agricultural Marketing Council publishes the
official supply and demand figures
in South Africa on a monthly basis.
This report will be issued on 29
January 2016.
The NCEC's white maize planting estimate amounted to approximately 180 000 hectares more
than expected in the market. The
question is, however, how much
of this maize had been planted
for animal feed purposes and how
much for harvesting purposes. The
result is that the calculated imports
are currently significantly lower
and are estimated at just more than
one million tons. Over the short
term it will put downward pressure
on the price, but expectations are
that the price will stabilise at the
calculated import parity level.
The calculated yellow maize
import requirements following
the latest crop estimate are in the
region of 2,5 million tons. This was
no big surprise and the price movement on Safex was insignificant.
Looking at the calculated white
maize import requirements, it is
evident that a large quantity of
white maize will have to be imported during the coming year.
OILSEED COMPLEX:
Sunflower:
The general feeling is that the
NCEC's sunflower estimate is very
conservative. Sunflower is being
planted at a rapid rate in the Western Free State and western parts of
Northwest. Tractors with planters
can be seen in the above area,
where mainly sunflower is being
planted.
It has to be borne in mind that
a large number of producers were
unable to plant maize and they
are therefore forced to plant sunflower for cash flow purposes. It is
estimated that sunflower plantings
will be significantly higher than
indicated by the NCEC in its first
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Table 3. The calculated import needs of yellow maize.
Table 4. The calculated import needs of white and yellow maize.
production estimate, which could
result in pressure on the sunflower
price. Imported sunflower, sunflower oil and sunflower oilcake
is fairly expensive at present due
to the scarcity thereof and the depreciation of the rand. However,
it supports the sunflower price on
the other hand.
Soya beans:
Soya bean plantings and expected
production are a lot lower due to
the drought, which means that the
importing of soya beans is inevitable. It will support the soya bean
price and will result in soya beans
trading at around the calculated
import parity level. Experience has
taught us that harvesting pressure
Feb/Mar 2016 • SENWES Scenario
usually occurs from February to
May every year, after which the
soya bean price usually recovers.
SUMMARY AND
CONCLUSION:
This season's drought and the depreciated rand generally supported
commodity prices. However, the
NCEC issued the crop estimate
one month early, while the largest
part of the South African summer
crop was planted very late this
year. This fact is currently increasing uncertainty about the expected
summer grain crop. A lot can still
happen and commodity prices
could still be supported to a reasonable extent for the foreseeable
future due to this uncertainty.