Senwes Scenario December 2018 / January 2019 | Page 37

MARKETS
Graph 1: July WM seasonal.
Graph 2: May sunflower seasonal.
Table 3: The soybean input costs
Date calculated: 2018/10/18
Droëland: Jaar-op-Jaar - Bothaville
PRODUKPRYS (R/ton)
R4 300
BEPLANNINGSOPBRENGS (ton/ha) 1,25 1,5 1,75
BRUTO PRODUKINKOMSTE (BPI) (R/ha) 5 375 6 450 7 525
A: GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE (R/ha)
Saad 308
Kalk 86
369
431
2
2,25
8 600
492
2,5
2,75
3
9 675 10 750 11 825 12 900
554
615
615
615
Kunsmis 802 1 182 1 351 1 512 1 764 2 016 2 268 2 521
Onkruiddoders 457 457 457 457 457 457 457 457
129
Plaagdoders 597 Brandstof 838 848 871
42 42 44
Saadbehandeling
Reparasies
Smeermiddels
85
525
597
150
92
527
597
99
543
172
597
105
882
545
44
193
597
105
893
547
45
215
597
109
904
548
45
236
597
109
914
550
46
tify such times, the average historic price
movements were analysed. These sea-
sonal trends can be used to identify times
during which hedging can probably be
done at good seasonal levels.
It is evident from the graph 1 that the
first seasonal opportunity to price, is the
last half of December. The second oppor-
tunity is the first two weeks of March. The
last good opportunity is indicated as the
first week of June - just before harvest
time.
It is evident from graph 2 that the
seasonal peak for sunflower is usually at
the end of January. It may therefore be
sensible not to leave hedging until harvest
time, but to do early marketing.
258
597
119
925
552
46
A: TOTAAL GESPESIFISEERDE KOSTE
(R/ha) 3 739 4 244 4 543 4 807 5 155 5 506 5 793 6 089
B: R/Ton Sakprys benodig 2 991 2 829 2 596 2 403 2 291 2 202 2 106 2 030
Wins (per hektaar) 1 636 2 206 2 982 3 793 4 520 5 244 6 032 6 811
SUMMARY
The market provides traditional seasonal
opportunities for hedging at profitable
levels. It is always sensible to utilise these
opportunities as effectively as possible
with a suitable strategy such as a mini-
mum price, which still leaves room to uti-
lise upward potential. Should the seasonal
opportunities be used, hedging can be
done at optimal seasonal levels.
SENWES SCENARIO | TECHNOLOGY & INNOVATION 2018
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