Senwes Scenario December 2016 / January 2017 | Page 45

•••
••
CO ME R A IN O R SHIN E ••
resulted in a very small crop, the
reason being the tropical cyclone,
Demoina, which moved over the
eastern part of South Africa.
Let's look at a few climate indicators. The SOI decreased significantly, which is a bit unnerving.
Climatologists are, however, of the
opinion that this will be a temporary occurrence. During the recent
serious drought experienced by the
largest part of South Africa, this
index was negative.
The sea temperatures in the
NINO3-4 area in the Pacific
Ocean are, however, more important. Should the average sea temperature be higher than normal,
it would have an impact on the
circulation patterns of moisture in
the world, which usually impact
negatively on the expected rainfall
in Southern Africa. Sea temperatures in the NINO 3-4 area
are fairly constantly lower than
normal, which is encouraging.
The El Niño-status is currently
on “watch”. The sea temperatures
during the 2014/15 season, circled in red in the graph, were not
much lower than normal and the
second largest maize crop in South
Africa was produced during that
year.
The predictions of the
Seasonal Climate Watch of the
South African Weather Services,
which were issued on 20 October,
are indicated below. They still
predict reasonably good chances
of rain from November 2016 until
March 2017. There are no indications of below average rainfall
conditions.

Graph 1. The total South African maize crop during El Niño, La Niña and neutral
years.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
There are various reasons for optimism about the coming season. In
most cases sub-soil moisture conditions are better. We pray, trust
and believe that we will receive
rain after the very dry conditions
of the past few years.
SENWES Scenario • DEC 2016/JAN 2017

43