Senwes Scenario August/September 2018 | Page 62

GRAIN BROKERS Characteristics of an optimal hedging strategy In the previous two editions we focused on the factors which will influence a producer’s hedging decision, as well as the issue of market efficiency. The conclusion of the said articles was that the JSE agri-product market is generally liquid and, as indicated by specific research, it responds sufficiently to new information. This implies that the market offers an effective platform to role players to apply price management. Building in this premise, this article will focus on the applicable research with respect to different hedging strategies.  By Frans Dreyer Manager: Senwes Grain Brokerage T he term hedging strategy relates to the strategy or marketing plan which a producer can follow in order to determine or protect the value of production by means of derivative instruments. Hedging as such remains one of the more difficult decisions which pro- ducers are confronted with every season. A producer has to be satisfied with the reality that hedging decisions in respect of a crop, which may still have to be planted and which usually still has to be harvested, are taken on the basis of the information available at the specific time. This real- ity means that the implementation of a hedging strategy, rather than a haphazard hedging decision, is a less risky approach. 60 SENWES SCENARIO | SPRING 2018 As a result, hedging strategies are researched on a regular basis to determine the type of strategy which will render the best results over time. International hedg- ing strategy research could not reach con- sensus on an optimal strategy, but certain characteristics of an optimal hedging strat- egy were identified. These characteristics will be referred to throughout this article. The development of hedging strategies within the South African market context is also based on international research. The first important research in this regard was done shortly after deregulation by Grönum and Van Schalkwyk (2000). Their results related to the specific optimal characteristic that a strategy has to be sufficiently adaptable in order to be able to absorb or accommodate unforeseen price reactions as a result of production risks within the strategy. An important aspect which was highlighted, was that a strategy has to address price and income risk by taking the cost of production into account. A marketing decision must therefore be based on profitability. Further research by Scheepers (2005) was of the first studies in which three different strategies were compared with the alternative of not hedging at all and of selling after harvest time. The first strategy was to hedge total production during the planting period by selling term contracts against the following July contract. The second strategy developed from the foun- dation of the first one and included the buying of a call-option with the short-term contract (synthetic put-option). The third strategy followed the same principle, but the call-option was bought against the March contract and not the July contract. The call-option was specifically bought against the March contract in order to decrease option costs and to test the the-