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COME R AI N OR S H I N E
What can we expect for
the coming season?
Article written: 09 July 2017
THYS GROBBELAAR
SENIOR GRAIN ANALYST,
SENWES GRAINLINK
THE PAST SEASON
The summer season is the period,
from 1 July to 30 June the next
year. The 2016/2017 summer sea-
son came to an end at the end of
June 2017 as far as rainfall is con-
cerned. The season was a welcome
relief after two very dry preceding
seasons and rain occurred fairly
evenly across the summer rainfall
area. No areas in the summer
rainfall area experienced serious
drought. The long-term average
rainfall for the central summer
rainfall area is in the region of
590 millimetres while an average
of approximately 740 millimetres
were received over the past season.
South Africa is also heading for
the largest maize and soya bean
crop in history.
The next map indicates the
past season’s rainfall as a percent-
age of the long-term rainfall. The
eastern areas of the traditional
Senwes area in particular received
significantly more rain than the
long-term average. The area
around Bloemfontein received less
than the long-term average.
The next graph reflects the
long-term average, the very dry
2015/16 season as well as the rain-
46
THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD 1 JULY 2016 TO 31 MAY 2017 AS %
OF THE LONGTERM RAINFALL.
Graph 1. A comparison between the average rainfall of the 2015/16, the 2016/17
and the long term rainfall for the Senwes area.
fall distribution of the past season.
The excessively high rainfall for
February was just in time to save
the summer crop. However, it
rained less in the western parts of
AUG/SEP 2017 • SENWES Scenario
the summer rainfall area than in
the eastern parts.
The map of the South African
Weather Bureau clearly indicates
that the Western Cape and parts