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COME RAIN OR SHINE
Anticipating the outcome of the new season
Seasonal rainfall from 1 July 2015 to 31 May 2016 as percentage of the longterm rainfall for the same period .
THYS GROBBELAAR SENIOR GRAIN ANALYST , SENWES GRAINLINK
RAINFALL THIS SEASON It is a well known fact that the past season , which was classified as a El Niño-type season , resulted in far below average rainfall , particularly over the western parts of the traditional Senwes area of operation . It had a catastrophic effect on grain yields , dam levels and the depth of the water table in respect of boreholes . The map above reflects the cumulative rainfall from 1 July 2015 until 31 May 2016 . The worst hit areas were the Bultfontein , Wesselsbron , Hoopstad and Bothaville areas . The north-eastern parts of the area could plant to some extent and the crops managed to develop normally , although less than the long-term average rainfall was received . The worst affected areas received 60 % to 70 % of the long-term rainfall . One should not forget that most of the damage to the summer crop happened during January and February 2016 . The map below reflects the rainfall situation at the end of February 2016 . The largest portion of the grain and oilseed crop was planted very late and flowered during February . The traditional Senwes area which was af-
Rainfall for the period 1 July 2015 to 29 February 2016 as percentage of the long-term average .
fected the worst received between 24 % and 36 % of the long-term average rainfall for the period concerned . We should therefore not only consider the amount of rain received during the season , but also when the rain was received . Did it rain enough when the crops needed it most ? The January 2016 to May 2016 period was also the hottest since the measurement of temperatures commenced in 1880 , which also took its toll .
Reasonably accurate records in respect of crop performance exist since the 1982 / 83 season for the western summer planting area . The variance in respect of the five-year running average yield was calculated and the years were
44 AUG / SEP 2016 • SENWES Scenario