Senwes Scenario April / May 2019 | Page 71

MARKETS February 2019. Should any of the risk factors materialise (cold, frost, dry weath- er), the crop may even be smaller. Based on 10,51 million tons, no further maize imports should be necessary. Prices would, however, have to remain high enough to limit consumption to some extent and in order to ensure that suffi- cient carry-over stock is available to meet pipeline requirements. Should be crop be smaller than 10,5 million tons, yellow maize would have to be imported. The first point where yellow maize will be imported, will be the Western Cape, then Port Elizabeth and lastly through Durban harbour to Pietermaritzburg. The requirements for each of these points are indicated in the map below. It is therefore evident from the above that, should a smaller crop realise, trad- ing would firstly take place at Western Cape yellow maize import parity, after which prices will gradually move to Pietermaritzburg yellow maize import parity. Refer to the daily Senwes market report for an update on parity prices. IN SUMMARY The local market focuses on the develop- ment and realisation of the national crop. Should the crop be smaller than expected at the time of the writing of this article, Map 2 imports would be required and prices would remain around import parity levels. It is important for a producer to know what his own production expectations are and to use the market accordingly to hedge his risk, as opportunities arise. Please contact your Senwes representative, or the team at Senwes Graanmakelaars, to assist you in this regard. SENWES SCENARIO | AUTUMN 2019 69