MARKETS
February 2019. Should any of the risk
factors materialise (cold, frost, dry weath-
er), the crop may even be smaller. Based
on 10,51 million tons, no further maize
imports should be necessary. Prices
would, however, have to remain high
enough to limit consumption to some
extent and in order to ensure that suffi-
cient carry-over stock is available to meet
pipeline requirements.
Should be crop be smaller than 10,5
million tons, yellow maize would have
to be imported. The first point where
yellow maize will be imported, will be
the Western Cape, then Port Elizabeth
and lastly through Durban harbour to
Pietermaritzburg. The requirements for
each of these points are indicated in the
map below.
It is therefore evident from the above
that, should a smaller crop realise, trad-
ing would firstly take place at Western
Cape yellow maize import parity, after
which prices will gradually move to
Pietermaritzburg yellow maize import
parity. Refer to the daily Senwes market
report for an update on parity prices.
IN SUMMARY
The local market focuses on the develop-
ment and realisation of the national crop.
Should the crop be smaller than expected
at the time of the writing of this article,
Map 2
imports would be required and prices
would remain around import parity levels.
It is important for a producer to know what
his own production expectations are and
to use the market accordingly to hedge
his risk, as opportunities arise. Please
contact your Senwes representative, or
the team at Senwes Graanmakelaars, to
assist you in this regard.
SENWES SCENARIO | AUTUMN 2019
69