MARKETS
Grain market prospects:
Autumn 2019
At the time of writing this article, the planting season had been finalised. We are there-
fore in the risk production phase, during which crops are emerging and have to be kept
free of pests and weeds. Sufficient rain is needed for the crops to reach their full produc-
tion potential. After successful pollination and when the plants are physiologically ripe,
Article written: 05 March 2019
the focus moves to harvest time.
By Hansie Swanepoel
Senwes Market analyst
A
utumn is traditionally a time
during which there is more cer-
tainty about the extent of pro-
duction - pollination has been
finalised and grain filling is taking place.
The end of autumn is usually character-
ised by the first harvesters in the fields
and producers discussing the potential of
the coming harvesting season. This year
(2018/2019 production year), with its late
plantings, may be one where these dis-
cussions are postponed to a later date.
The planting for this season were
significantly later than normal. The
graph below indicates that he majority of
plantings in the Senwes area were done
between 22 December 2018 and 15
January 2019
The late plantings put the yield at risk,
the risk of early frost and cold. Should
good rain not realise, plants could expe-
rience stress in a critical time of the life
cycle of the plant. Certain findings have
been made by Senwes in more than one
crop survey during planting time and
after emergence of the plants, in terms of
which the risk relating to the crop can be
quantified as follows:
%
low risk 19%
High risk 20%
Medium risk
61%
The above percentages mainly relate
to hectares in the Western Free State and
Northwest.
1460 heat units are required for a medi-
um grower (maize) and 130 heat units for a
short grower. According to Accuweather's
long-term predictions in respect of avail-
able heat units, a mere 1275 heat units are
available until the end of April 2019. The
risk of plants not reaching their full yield
potential is therefore material.
The average frost dates are reflected in
the map below.
The NCEC estimated the nation-
al maize crop at 10,51 million tons in
15 Nov
30 Nov
15 Dec
22 Dec
15 Jan
Graph 1: Plant dates in the Senwes area
due to less heat units being available, and
a large portion of the crop is exposed to
68
SENWES SCENARIO | AUTUMN 2019
Map 1. The average frost dates are reflected in the map.