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CO L U M N
GRAIN MARKET PROSPECTS
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sunflower and wheat which will
have to be imported. This will result
in a sunflower shortage in the next
marketing year. This situation will
strongly support prices.
Soya beans
Approximately 167 000 hectares
less soya beans than the previous
year were planted this year. The
drought and heat wave during January 2016 had a negative impact
on yields. Approximately 200 000
tons of soya beans will have to be
imported as a result. This does not
include the expected imports of 600
000 tons of oilcake and
170 000 tons of soya bean oil. As
a result the soya bean price for the
largest part of the marketing year
will be in the region of the calculated import parity price. A strong
price movement can only be expected from October/November, when
there should be more clarity around
the possibilities of soya bean production in the coming season. The
table below demonstrates the calculated supply and demand situation
in respect of soya beans in South
African in the new marketing year.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Despite low international prices of
most grain and oilseed commodities, maize, sunflower and soya bean
prices on the JSE are at high levels.
Prices are mostly in the region of
the calculated import parity and
higher. The higher the uncertainty
regarding the availability of the
commodity, the higher the price,
as can be seen in respect of white
maize and sunflower. The weaker
rand also encourages price movement. This price trend will, in all
probability, continue for some time.
Prices will only decrease when there
is more certainty about the situation in the 2017/2018 marketing
year.
46
Graph 5. Cash and price movement of sunflower and soya beans on the JSE.
Table 1. Supply and demand report for sunflower in South Africa.
2012/13
Area (ha)
Yield
Total crop
Beginning stock
Imports
Surplus
Correction
Available sunflower
Human consumption
Animal consumption
Crush (oil and oil cake)
Other
Local demand
Exports
Total demand
Ending stock
Carry over stock as % of
local demand
453 350
1,15
521 353
109 003
11 708
5 746
647 810
910
3 016
568 643
8 356
580 925
47
580 972
81 302
14,0%
MARKETING YEAR
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
504 700
1,10
556 987
81 302
94 475
4 689
14 822
722 631
1 162
2 777
662 612
8 956
675 507
8
675 515
47 116
7,0%
2016/17
598 950
1,39
831 942
47 116
63 000
6 000
576 000
1,15
659 981
92 927
40 000
5 000
687 150
1,00
686 738
44 207
5 000
948 057
500
3 000
850 000
9 241
862 741
50
862 791
85 266
9,9%
797 908
650
8 100
740 000
7 381
756 131
210
756 341
41 567
5,5%
735 945
850
9 000
740 000
8 500
758 350
100
758 450
-22 505
-3,0%
Needed pipe line demand
Import demand
(with pipeline demand)
82 000
90 000
Table 2. Supply and demand of soybeans in South Africa.
Area (Hectars)
Yield (t/ha)
Deliverable crop
Commercial deliveries
On farm retention
Beginning stock
Imports
Surplus
Avaiable soybeans
Human consumption
Animal consumption
Crush (oil and oil cake)
Other
Local demand
Exports