Advisory

As the summer season comes to an end, so does the expected above-normal rainfall conditions for the summer-rainfall region during late autumn( April- May-June). There may still be isolated rainfall events for these areas, even though they are not expected to be significant. The focus changes now to the winter-rainfall region, for which some forecasting systems indicate a likelihood of abovenormal rainfall for late autumn to mid-winter( June-July-August). There is however, a significant amount of uncertainty as these

forecasting systems tend not to provide skilful forecasts during the winter period. Temperatures are expected to be above-normal for most of the country right through towards mid-winter. The confidence for an El Niño event to occur has risen significantly and the public is advised to keep track of its developments. At this stage it is still too early to predict its impact on the next summer season over Southern Africa, however, historically it usually has a significant negative impact on summer rainfall..

Recommendation

It is recommended that the public be aware of the possible negative rainfall impacts for both the coming winter and summer seasons, given the dry conditions that have been experienced over the country. Even with expected above-normal rainfall indicated by some forecasting systems for the winter-rainfall region, these expectations are very uncertain. Conservative planning is advised wherever possible and as usual it is also very important to keep monitoring any developments

that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.