Weather
Weather -
Seasonal Climate Watch
July to November 2016
Advisory
Current observations show
a neutral ENSO (El-Niño
Southern Oscillation) state. As
most ENSO prediction models
indicate, the development of
a (weak) La-Niña is likely
toward late spring through
the
summer
season
of
2016/17. Climate conditions
over adjacent oceans and
most forecast models suggest
the likelihood of a warmer
Recommendation
and drier late winter season
over the interior and north
eastern parts of the country.
The far south western parts
may experience its usual
winter conditions however.
How rainfall and temperature
conditions
would
evolve
toward spring and the early
summer season is however
not clearly manifested as yet.
The continuation of drier
and warmer conditions over
most of the country is likely
to persist for the remainder
of this winter season while,
as indicated above, parts
of the south west do not
mirror
these
tendencies.
Furthermore, rainfall and
temperature forecasts during
spring and the early summer
season are still dominated
by a growing uncertainty.
It
is
therefore
highly
recommended that mediumand shorter-range weather
forecasts be monitored for the
development of conditions
that may alter or strengthen
the expectation of the current
forecast.
Rainfall
Minimum and Maximum Temperatures
Despite the large uncertainty and marginal
confidence (Figure A1) in the forecasting
system, there are chances for below- (above-)
normal rainfall conditions over the south
eastern (north eastern) parts of the country for
the winter and spring seasons.
Minimum and maximum temperature forecasts show a tendency of warmer than usual
temperatures over the country particularly over the north-eastern parts during mid-winter and
early spring while the western exhibits enhanced probabilities for below-normal maximum
temperatures (Figure 2).
For improved confidence in a probabilistic
prediction use is made of skill scores most
notably the Relati