AGRICULTURE
Good harvest, bad mood
South African agriculture is still producing, but confidence has weakened over energy costs, logistics pressure, disease risk, and next season ' s weather.
By Ebrahim Moolla
Production in South African agriculture is not the issue. Conditions have improved in parts of the sector, exports remain strong, and farmers are still investing in machinery and expansion, which is what makes the latest confidence reading worth taking seriously.
The Agbiz / IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index fell to 45 in the second quarter of 2026, below the neutral 50 mark and its lowest level since the second quarter of 2024. The capital investment subindex fell further, down 20 points from the first quarter to 33, its lowest level since 2006, even though farmers have kept investing in tractors, combine harvesters, and other infrastructure. That divergence carries the sharper warning. Continued spending may say more about necessity than appetite, farmers replacing worn machinery, and keeping operations running rather than adventurous expansion into anything new.
Agbiz said respondents cited the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and fertiliser prices as a major concern. The export volumes subindex also deteriorated, with logistics disruption and rising shipping costs weighing on sentiment despite continued export strength. Lower global prices in sugar and wheat, slow domestic tariff responses, possible El Niño conditions in the 2026 / 27 season, and the continuing pressure of foot-and-mouth disease added to the unease.
" The cost pressures of the Middle East conflict and the increased likelihood of unfavourable weather conditions over the coming production season are topof-mind concerns for agribusinesses," said Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo in the organisation ' s Q2 2026 confidence commentary.
A good harvest can fill silos. It cannot by itself repair confidence."
Citrus carries the clearest version of that strain. South Africa expects to ship between 210 million and 215 million 15kg cartons in 2026, after 203.4 million cartons in 2025, but a large crop does not guarantee an easy route to market. About 95 % of South African citrus moves by road, the Citrus Growers ' Association has warned, exposing it to fuel and transport-cost shocks. CGA logistics development manager Mitchell Brooke has described that dependence as a " massive risk " to the industry, warning that rail reform is needed to stay competitive.
54 sabusinessintegrator. co. za