consequently faster evaporation of water into
the atmosphere.
This increases the moisture content in clouds,
so more energy is needed to keep that water
in the sky defying gravity, but at the same
time greater cloud cover reduces the amount
of energy coming into the earth’s atmosphere
from the sun. With thousands of variables,
each related to one another at different
levels of scale, it is impossible to predict a
specific outcome. This is why climate change
scientists speak of an envelope of probability
with an upper and lower threshold. Just
like weather forecasters will talk about the
percentage probability of rain tomorrow.
While scientists are unable to predict exact
outcomes, what is known with great certainty
is that all existing climate-related events will
become more extreme. We can clearly see
this in our rainfall patterns. A high-confidence
study
conducted
by
the
University
of
Cape Town, funded by the Water Research
Commission (WRC Project 2317/1/18), showed
that 1982 was a threshold year in South
Africa. Before 1982 rainfall across the country
was greater than average (shown as shades
of blue to indicate the extent of deviation
from the norm) but, after 1982, rainfall was
clearly less than average (shown as shades
of brown). More importantly, we also see a
affect other wind patterns until – ultimately –
it could unleash a hurricane halfway across
the world. This body of science is known as
deterministic chaos theory.
The recent tragic loss of life in two plane
accidents
illustrates
this
perfectly.
The
fuel-efficient Boeing 737 Max 8 featured
a revolutionary piece of software called a
Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation
System (MCAS), which was designed to take
over automatically if sensors detected that
the plane was about to stall. Unfortunately,
once the system took over in response to a
faulty stall signal, the plane (a complicated so many factors, so predicting how global distinct shift in winter rainfall. This speaks to
machine) suddenly took on the properties of warming will pan out is even trickier but the a core issue that residential estate owners
a complex system, rendering the outcome mechanisms are understood. An increase in and managers will need to deal with in future
unpredictable by the pilots. greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and – extreme events: droughts that are deeper
methane prevents heat from leaving the and more protracted, and rainfall that is more
is earth and radiating back to space, resulting intense over shorter periods, and possibly out
not an exact science because there are in increased ocean surface temperature, and of the seasonal norm.
Even
predicting
tomorrow’s
weather
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INDUSTRY JOURNAL