Reports 2016 CTRM Market Update - Page 4
2016 CTRM Market Update
2016 Market Trends Update
Commodity prices fell throughout the year in 2015, driven
in large part by declining economic growth in the Asia-Pac region, and over-investment in commodities infrastructure during
the previous 5 years of high prices and growing demand.
en the changes across the industry driven by regulatory and
structural change, we expect pent-up demand to start to flow
through later in the year, with overall spend expected to be up
slightly from 2015 to $1.65B.
Faced with the steadily declining prices and increasing
costs, 2015 was marked by producers, merchants and traders
cutting budgets and reducing or delaying spending, impacting the global spend for IT solutions, including CTRM software products. Based on our analysis, we believe the market
for CTRM solutions, 3rd party implementation services and
3rd bespoke solutions development, support and services to
$1.59B in 2015.
This interim market size update provides estimates and
forecasts of total CTRM market size through the year 2020,
categorized along three dimensions – by revenue component,
by commodity, and by geographic region.
Given the overall current difficult conditions in commodity markets, ComTech does expect H1 2016 to continue the
trend set in 2015 – moderate deal flow, but lower revenues on
a per deal basis than in previous years; though some segments
will be impacted more than others in this regard. However, giv-
CTRM Market Revenue Forecast By Revenue Component
Reviewing total CTRM market revenue-by-revenue components, results for 2015 were essentially flat to 2014, though
overall license sales were down slightly. The key events, trends
and issues reflected in this analysis were as follows:
/ While procurement activity (in the form of RFPs etc.)
appeared to be good in most regions outside of the
Asia-Pacific markets, and potentially actually higher than
in 2014 in Europe, it appears that reduced IT budgets
resulted in fewer deal closures, lower average deal prices and a higher number of Saas/Hosted solutions being
deployed than previously forecast.
/ Adoption of SaaS/Hosted solutions exceeded expectations and that market component increased more rapidly than forecast. Additionally, the movement from recognized license revenues to annual recurring revenues
associated with SaaS/hosted solution deployment also
increased, reflecting a growing tendency for vendors to
negotiate new deals (regardless of the technology deployment method) as an annual payment that includes
license and support & maintenance fees.
/ License revenue was lower than expected in 2015 due to
greater adoption of SaaS/Hosted solutions, increasing
use of annualized license/S&M agreements, andfewer
than expected large deals; mid-sized deals (those less
than $1MM in first year total revenue) and lower revenue
deals dominated the market in 2015.
/ The estimated market share of the 6 largest vendors declined in 2015 to 67% from 71% in 2014 due to the increased numbers of deals done in the mid-tier and lower
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