Reports 2013 CTRM Global Market Size | Page 6

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Market Outlook and Study Assumptions
The following assumptions were utilized in the development of the forward looking market analysis:
Growth estimates reflects current consensus outlook for global economic growth of 2-3% per year for the
foreseeable future.
All data 2012 dollars – there has been no adjustments for inflation or currency exchange rate changes over
the period 2013 to 2018.
ComTech currently believes the global market for CTRM licenses (including ASP/SaaS) will grow, on average,
approximately 5% per year from 2013 to 2018
o Traditionally installed software license sales will grow by approximately four percent per year
during that period.
o Growth in ASP/SaaS will be approximately 13-15% over the study, exceeding that of traditional
license growth.
Growth from 2012 to 2013 primarily reflects backlog of services associated with several exceptional sized
deals done in late 2012. Based on 2013 results compiled at the time of this analysis, we anticipate 2013
license sales to show little or no growth vs. 2012.
Despite our current forecast assumptions, there exist a number of potential market developments that could
impact the outlook for the CTRM market in the coming years. Should global market growth exceed current forecast
assumptions, the following market segments could show higher than forecast growth.
Agricultural markets and Consumer Package Goods (CPG) – Increasing price volatility and growing
awareness of the value of trading-centric solutions (driven in part by CTRM vendors) for direct, indirect and
cross-commodity hedging could accelerate adoption of CTRM capabilities/solutions.
Trading companies and fuels intensive industries, including transportation and logistics companies,
processing companies – Increased demand for oil and products could lead to higher prices/volatilities and
could increase demand for CTRM technology solutions as new entrants enter the markets and existing
participants seek to improve risk visibility and/or grow via increasing trading volumes or by entering new
markets.
Mining – Mining has been in decline since mid-year 2012. However a strong increase in demand for metals,
ores and coal could lead to increased mine development and a subsequent increase in demand for CTRM
solutions in this segment, particularly in Australia, South America and Africa.
Base metals and concentrates – economic upturn will increase demand and increase price volatilities in
non-precious metals trading/processing, attracting new market participants particularly in the traditional
market trading centers in Europe and in the import centric markets in the Asia Pacific region.
Should full market liberalization in the European Union energy markets occur prior to 2017, growth in
demand for CTRM products in that market could exceed 10%/year post liberalization; however the current
outlook does not support full opening of the EUR energy markets prior to 2018.

© 2013 Commodity Technology Advisory LLC

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