Renewable Energy Installer October 2016 | Page 20

Opinion Study reveals low cost of integrating solar into power system new report for the Solar Trade Association (STA) for the first time quantifies the cost of integrating solar into the UK power market, both today and in a 2030 scenario where solar provides over 10% of annual UK electricity. Concerns are sometimes expressed about the variability of solar power (which generates according to daylight intensity) imposing costs on the system; the need for ‘back-up’ is cited as a disadvantage of solar power by critics of renewable energy. There has been uncertainty about what these costs are today and will be in the future. However, the Aurora analysis shows that today the cost of integrating solar into the power system, including ‘back-up’, is negligible at only £1.30 per MWh, or less than 2% of the costs of solar today. STA Chief Executive Paul Barwell said: “The tremendous growth in local, clean generation has challenged the old power supply model. Yet Ministers can be reassured that the rapid expansion in solar power over recent years has been absorbed efficiently and affordably by the system.” The research shows that more than tripling solar generation to 40GW (over 10% of annual UK electricity) would increase the costs of managing variability modestly, to a maximum of £6-7 per MWh. A 20 | www.renewableenergyinstaller.co.uk This clarity on the costs of integrating large volumes of solar, together with further expected cost reductions in solar installations, supports the STA’s and other analysts’ expectation that solar can be the lowest cost form of energy generation in the 2020’s. However, strikingly the modelling shows integrating solar into a more decentralised, flexible, ‘smarter’ power system, including batteries, actually delivers more benefits than costs to the system. High battery penetration combined with high solar penetration reduces the cost of variability by £10.50 per MWh, resulting in a net £3.70 per MWh benefit. This is because solar combined with batteries allows output to match demand requirements exceptionally closely and requires only a small amount of back up. The report also evaluates the portfolio effort of combining solar and wind in the energy system. The model follows the ‘High Renewables’ pathway set out by the Committee on Climate Change as a generation mix consistent with the UK’s 2030 carbon budgets. This requires 40GW of solar and 45GW of wind, enough to power 55% of the UK’s electricity system in 2030. The cost impact of solar on the system falls by 25% in this scenario. Dr Benjamin Irons, a Director at Aurora Energy Research and lead author of the report, said: “Recent spectacular technological progress in renewable power generation puts the promise of cheap, low carbon power within reach. The challenge of integrating large volumes of renewables into the network in a way that provides reliable power to consumers and an attractive m arket for complementary generation technologies is the ‘last frontier’ in delivering the power system of tomorrow. Our analysis shows that such integration is possible and surprisingly affordable: the UK could more than triple the amount of solar power on the system by 2030, with associated costs of integration and back up so low as as to be dwarfed by the enormous cost savings anticipated from falling solar prices over the same period.” Angus MacNeil MP, Chair of the Common’s Energy and Climate Change Committee, said: “This welcome research puts numbers and maths behind the variability of solar power. It gives a concrete understanding of what solar has to offer compared to other technologies. Combined with reducing capital costs solar is going to be as cheap a source of power as you’ll find anywhere.” Lord Adair Turner, Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, said: “Aurora’s report confirms what an increasing number of analyses are now telling us – that we can build electricity systems with high shares of renewables such as solar and wind, using lower cost batteries, other storage technologies and demand management to deal effectively with intermittent supply. We should not be holding back from further renewables investment out of fear that we can’t keep the lights on.” Paul Barwell, CEO of the STA, added:“Britain is concerned about its international competitiveness as it exits the EU and moves to ratify the Paris Agreement on climate change. The good news is backing solar power, the UK’s most popular energy technology, looks set to enhance UK competitiveness – so there need be no trade-offs.” The variability cost of integrating 40GW of solar is further cut by 55% to £3.10 per MWh if Hinkley C isn’t replaced, because the inflexibility of nuclear power also imposes costs and reduces the economics of flexible generation.